Let's not get too carried away

GERRY THORNLEY ON RUGBY: So Ireland scalped the world champions, put the record straight to some degree with their nemesis from the last World Cup, and in the process etched themselves into the record books with a sixth successive win. The rugby fraternity, or some of them at any rate, are awash with optimism, and Ireland were even tipped by some highly-esteemed pundits on the radio the other day to win the Six Nations and maybe reach the World Cup semi-finals. It might be wise at this stage to apply the brakes.

For sure the self-belief which the Irish squad has generated in the first half of the Test season - in its ability to beat anyone on a given day even without the talismanic Keith Wood but with a rejuvenated defence and set-piece game - should be a significant shot in the arm.

As Eddie O'Sullivan has always maintained, "we've always fared well in the autumn here, because by and large the Southern Hemisphere sides are dragging themsleves over here at the end of their season. It's the same when we go down there in the summer. The real test of where everybody is, is the World Cup, because it's a level playing field."

So let's do him, them and ourselves a favour here. Ireland remain third favourites for the Six Nations behind England and France, and a distant sixth in the World Cup betting at 33 to 1 (and that's with an Irish firm, Paddy Power).

One of the difficulties facing into this season's Six Nations' itinerary is that the Irish match-ups are much less cut and dried than last season. Scotland's win over the Springboks, helped as it was by some poor refereeing, has since been handsomely put in perspective by England, while they struggled to put away a hapless Fijian side by five tries to two in contrast to an experimental Irish side which won by nine tries to two.

Nevertheless, there's an old and dog-eared McGeechan and Telfer-inspired revival afoot with the Scots. By February 16th Irish rugby has every reason to believe that pound for pound, from one to 22, the boys in green are better players but then again, how often have we heard that before almost bi-annual, losing sorties to Murrayfield in the past couple of decades? Furthermore, the first shoots of a revival with the Welsh national side are also in evidence judging by their utterly wholehearted and gutsy effort against the far classier All Blacks on Saturday, and they certainly won't be the dispirited, shambolic lot that came to Dublin last season. In Cardiff, it has to be much closer.

And, eh, have we forgotten the 45-11 and 44-5 thumpings meted out to Ireland by England and France last season? Granted, Ireland will be at Lansdowne Road, which has become something of a fortress (albeit while fiendishly moving the surrounding moat inside) after a two-year run of 10 wins out of 11. Only the All Blacks have emerged unscathed, with the vanquished including France, England, Australia and Argentina. But again, this only makes them both closer to 50-50 games.

FRANCE and England remain the standard bearers. There must be doubts about whether all England's senior players will be at full throttle another year down the track and in their media's euphoria no one seems to be asking why they didn't they put away a second-string All Blacks or a troubled Australia more convincingly on home turf; nor that they were outscored on tries only to be saved by the remarkable boot of Jonny Wilkinson. Still though, beating the big three on successive weekends underlines their credentials for World Cup-style intensity. France possibly didn't scale those heights, and remain as reliant on Fabien Galthie as England on Wilkinson, but they've a monstrous pack, talent to burn and are now a consistently disciplined world force under Bernard Laporte.

No team was more of a disappointment and in so many ways than the Springboks. Rudolf Streauli's investment in a young, mobile and skilled group of players had me rooting for them for the first time ever when they launched their thrilling fightbacks against the Wallabies during the Tri Nations. However, not only did the Boks go backwards at an alarming rate on their three-match tour, but at Twickenham on Saturday they let themselves down in their desire to stand up proudly for their jerseys.

In Ireland's desire to not ensure a grudge match with the Pumas on October 26th next year in the Adelaide Oval, they declined to cite any opposing players afterwards. But far from diffusing the ill-feeling that existed in the aftermath of the Twickenham encounter, Streauli, apparently stoking it up for their World Cup renewal in the Subiaco Oval on October 18th, observed: "We came here as boys, we leave as men. And we will see England in Perth in the World Cup." That should help the referee no end.

The Boks' personnel will be altogether stronger come the World Cup but ditto the Wallabies and, most of all, the All Blacks. Doug Howlett was arguably the player of the month, and how Marty Holah and Tana Umaga are not considered automatic first choices is mind-boggling. They've been the team to watch and admire, and meantime most of their front-liners are resting up at home. Frightening.

They're the least reliant on one or two key individuals and what other team could have finished a match on the Millenium mudbath with three injury-time tries? The seamless transferring of the ball with Howlett holding his depth brilliantly, for the coup de grace by Regan King (who?) was vintage All Blacks. At 7 to 4 they're not much value for the World Cup but Paddy Powers are offering 11 to 2 on an All Blacks-France final. That's the bet.

On an altogether sadder note, the bulk of the Irish rugby squad assembled in picturesque Killaloe yesterday for the funeral of Pauline Wood, mother of the Irish captain, Keith, scarcely two months since last congregating there for the funeral of her son Gordon Jnr.

"A lovely woman, and a patient and caring woman," said Brian O'Brien in describing her, to which can be added genuine, hospitable, charming and a host of other adjectives. Our condolences to Michele, Carol-Ann, Ruth, Joan and Keith, and all her family, in such trying times.