Leinster have the strength to make the chances count

RUGBY: EVEN BEFORE a ball has been kicked proponents of a play-off system to the Magners League have been belatedly vindicated…

RUGBY:EVEN BEFORE a ball has been kicked proponents of a play-off system to the Magners League have been belatedly vindicated. Last season, Munster's success (two nights before the little matter of their Croker Euro semi-final defeat to Leinster) registered at about 0.01 on the rugby Richter scale and scarcely prompted a glass of Babycham.

This evening, as in domestic finals in France, England and Italy, the champagne is at the ready, and sponsors, organisers, financial secretaries and supporters alike have a climax befitting a major competition.

Nor could they have asked for a better pairing. First versus second, with the former rightly earning home advantage, not only brings together the most deserving finalists but sides laden with individual talent, much of it indigenous too.

With Cian Healy’s illness confining him to a place on the bench at best, the 58-time capped Springbok tighthead CJ van der Linde is recalled for his farewell start in the only change to the semi-final starting teams.

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All bar John Fogarty, called up to the Ireland squad yesterday, are full Test internationals.

And of the 24 Irish and Welsh internationals in the starting line-ups, 15 are Lions.

The response of both sides to their knock-out exits in Europe has been admirable and underlines the importance of extracting some silverware for two talented and expensively-assembled squads.

Following their defeat away to Biarritz in the quarter-finals, the Ospreys spent a week in Ireland for three games that, clearly, revitalised them and bonded them closer for the run-in. Their only defeat in their subsequent five games was 20-16 at the RDS six weeks ago, which followed wins away to Ulster and Munster.

Given seven of their front-liners were missing from the starting line-up that evening – Lee Byrne, Tommy Bowe, James Hook, Mike Phillips, Huw Bennett, Jonathan Thomas and skipper Ryan Jones – they must feel they have every chance.

“We’re not just here to make up the numbers, we’re here to win,” vowed Jones yesterday at a joint team announcement.

Then again, the Leinster team shows seven changes from that game, and the list of those returning to the line-up isn’t too shabby either: Rob Kearney, Brian O’Driscoll, Jonathan Sexton, Eoin Reddan, Stanley Wright, Van der Linde and the retiring Malcolm O’Kelly.

Nope, this is no regulation league game. This is a final, with both teams rested and focused on putting their best foot forward.

While that victory six weeks ago constituted Leinster’s sixth in a row over the Ospreys, dating back to April 2007, and their fifth in a row in Dublin (including the last three at the RDS), one wonders how much relevance this has in a final.

If anything it should steel the Ospreys’ resolve.

Likewise, a full house at the RDS ought to inspire them, possibly even more than would a half-empty Liberty Stadium, while the Cardiff Blues’ triumph in the Challenge Cup last week (and we’ve seen how the Irish provinces feed off each other’s wins) puts it up to them.

“If we give Tommy Bowe an inch of room we know he’ll exploit it,” Michael Cheika remarked of the Ospreys’ Irish threat, and he could have said the same of six or seven others.

Threat is not confined to Lee Byrne hitting the line or Bowe or Shane Williams out wide. The Ospreys generate much of their momentum from Jerry Collins, Ryan Jones and Mike Phillips.

Glib assertions about the Ospreys’ resolve proved misplaced at Thomond Park. Like Leinster, they have pedigree here, and both sides are seeking a record third Celtic title. And though Leinster have won the last six meetings, five of them have been one-score games.

All that said, Leinster have built a fortress mentality at the RDS, where they have lost only once this season – to London Irish last October – and have won their last 15 league games in succession dating back to September ’08.

Emotion and a desire to end an era fittingly may not have been discussed openly, but they’ll be strong nonetheless.

They have a defensive resilience which the Ospreys can test better than most teams in Europe, never mind the league, but one that can allow them soak up pressure perhaps more than their Welsh opponents, and then strike.

The Ospreys have been the more potent side over the season and arguably the more adventurous of late, but Leinster’s conversion rate of territory and chances into points has been much the better.

One suspects they are mentally stronger too.

Betting (Paddy Power):4/9 Leinster, 20/1 Draw, 15/8 Ospreys. Handicap (Ospreys +6) 10/11 Leinster, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 Ospreys.

Forecast: Leinster to win.

In the event of a tie at full time, the team which has scored the most tries in the match will be deemed the winner. If the number of tries are tied, extra time will be played. If the teams are still tied on points and tries at the end of extra time then the winner will be determined by a place-kick competition.