Racing News round-upPat Smullen and Dermot Weld arrive in Australia today and are set to be met by the sort of weather most would hope to have left behind. This, however, spells very good news for the Vinnie Roe Melbourne Cup team.
Heavy rain has left the ground at Flemington officially "heavy" and, while that description is hardly comparable to testing going at home, there appears to be more bad weather on the way.
The timing could hardly be better for the four-time Irish Leger hero, who has had a long-term provsio that he would be pulled out if the Flemington surface was too quick.
That now appears to be increasingly unlikely with more heavy rain forecast for the state of Victoria on Monday, just 24 hours before the big race.
The outlook is now looking so positive for the Irish star that some Australian bookmakers are predicting Vinnie Roe could even start as favourite.
"There might be enough rain in Melbourne already to ensure the track has enough give in it for Vinnie Roe to start and that is the lead punters want," Glenn Munsie of the Australian TAB said yesterday to Fox Sports.
"The money will come for Vinnie Roe on Monday when the punters have watched how the track has played on Saturday and what the weather forecast is.
"He might not replace Makybe Diva as favourite with the pre-post operators but he could well start favourite on track come the Melbourne Cup," he added.
Bookmaker reaction in Australia has solidified Vinnie Roe's position as 6 to 1 second favourite for the Cup behind the 100 to 30 favourite Makybe Diva. Media Puzzle is next best in the Paddy Power market at 8 to 1 while Frankie Dettori's mount, Mamool, one of three from Godolphin, is a 14 to 1 shot.
Vinnie Roe ran fourth on quick ground behind stable companion Media Puzzle in the 2002 Cup and Smullen will again ride the Jim Sheridan-owned stayer with Damien Oliver on Media Puzzle.
Before that Aidan O'Brien's five runners will fly the Irish flag in tomorrow's Breeders' Cup in Lone Star Park but the layers believe it's long odds against about any of the quintet providing Jamie Spencer with a Breeders' Cup success after just two previous rides in the series.
Gossamer's fifth in the 2002 Fillies & Mares race is the best the young rider has managed so far and Power bookmakers believe it's 4 to 7 that none of the O'Brien runners will win.
As for the European challenge they reckon one winner is a 5 to 4 favourite with two or more at 9 to 4. A total of four or more is a 40 to 1 chance for punters.
On the home front the recent bad weather appears to have left both Naas tomorrow and Clonmel on Sunday relatively unscathed but it's Leopardstown's Sunday card, the final day of the flat season, that has borne the brunt of the heavy rain.
A total of 30 millimetres fell on Wednesday night and the forecast predicts a further 20mms could fall on the Dublin course before the weather clears up at the weekend. With two and a half inches having fallen the previous week the ground is now "soft to heavy" at Leopardstown.
"It's hard to know where we stand at present. It depends on how much more we get. We could potentially get another 20mms which would makes things difficult to gauge. But we will know more in the morning," said Leopardstown racing manager Tom Burke yesterday.
Despite the doubt about Limestone Lad reappearing in tomorrow's Brown Lad Hurdle, there was better news for Naas with the going there only "soft."
Naas manager Margaret McGuinness said: "We got 17mms overnight but we didn't get the worst of it. We're not at all concerned. In fact we could take another drop."
No problems are predicted for Clonmel on Sunday with manager Jerry Desmond reporting: "The drainage work we've done in the last couple of years has worked very well and we don't foresee any problems."
MELBOURNE CUP BETTING
Paddy Power: 100-30 Makybe Diva, 6 Vinnie Roe, 8 Media Puzzle, She's Archie, 10 Distinction, 11 Hugs Dancer, 12 Pacific Dancer, 14 Mamool, 16 Bar.
