Ireland to bear brunt of the backlash

On Rugby: There will have been more than enough meat in the recipe served up by the Springboks last Saturday at the Millennium Stadium for Eddie O'Sullivan to get his teeth into.

But even as he devoured the video of their extraordinarily eventful and uneven 38-36 win over Wales, one nagging thought is liable to have been going through his mind. If only Ireland had been playing them last Saturday.

For no less than O'Sullivan, Jake White will have plenty to mull over as well. The Springboks' coach has been impressively composed and self-assured in rising above the remarkable in-fighting off the pitch in South African rugby as well as reviving their fortunes after the step-back-in-time era of Rudolf Streauli. But the Springboks' recriminatory mood this week will start with White himself after he miscalculated the time remaining when hauling off, first, Os du Randt and then Schalk Burger.

Taking into account Burger's first-half sin-binning, in all Wales scored 17 points while the omnipresent Burger was off the pitch and even watching Wales' late rally you felt it would merely give White and his management staff plenty of ammunition to use against their own players.

Perhaps it was the inevitable rustiness of a team which hadn't played together since completing their Tri-Nations success, but one also had the distinct impression that this remodelled and relatively callow Springboks side slipped into autopilot when twice opening up what should have been comfortable match-winning leads.

There's no prouder rugby animal, we know, than a Springbok (replaying the concession of a pushover try after du Randt's departure will be enough to put them in the darkest of moods), and these Boks have their hearts set on the little piece of immortality that comes with a Grand Slam.

Hats off to them for attempting such a relatively rare landmark in this day and age. But what Wales have done is merely awaken the Springboks to the notion that next Saturday's second leg at Lansdowne Road, no less than last Saturday's in Cardiff, is not merely a warm-up act for their tilt at the world champions in Twickenham a week subsequently.

"I think the Springboks will probably get better," observed the Welsh coach Mike Ruddock, in unison with practically everyone else, before admitting: "I think also we probably had the best chance of beating them on this tour but if they don't play for 80 minutes then Ireland could beat them."

While highlighting their collective size and strength, the lineout work of Victor Matfield, Percy Montgomery's performance and their back rowers, Ruddock made an observation that may particularly encourage O'Sullivan: "But there's no doubt we were a fitter team."

The Boks bossed the physical contact areas in both tests last June, and the conditioning which was part of the Irish players' extended 10-week pre-season should help bridge that gap, at least partially. But however much fresher the Irish players may be, it is probably offset by their lack of game time, especially together.

Ireland do have more settled combinations than Wales, most notably in the lineouts. The Welsh failed to secure 25 per cent of their own lineout ball (five out of 20) on Saturday, while the Springboks were winning all but one of Smit's 16 throws, most of which he could probably have directed blindfolded at Matfield.

But whereas Wales were effectively unveiling a new lineout, with debutant hooker Steve Jones and a relatively untried second-row combination of Brent Cockbain and sometime back rower Michael Owen, the Smit-Matfield-Bakkies-Botha combination is by now tried and tested. And ditto Shane Byrne, Malcolm O'Kelly and Paul O'Connell.

Given the Springboks' line speed and blitz defence, the way they cramped Shane Williams for space will probably indicate their attempts to stifle Brian O'Driscoll. But likewise, the Springboks committed a fair few turnovers, with players either caught in possession or guilty of spilling the ball as the home side's own rush defence advanced on them.

While the pace off the base of the blindingly quick Joe van Niekerk was the platform for one try and much else, the Springboks were more dangerous in broken play, scoring two of their four tries off turnovers from long-range; the first after Michael Owen spilled the ball in the tackle and the second when the dancing Shane Williams was hit from behind by Botha. "It was either him (Botha)," commented Williams afterwards, "or a bus."

Both scores underlined the importance of avoiding unnecessary turnovers, but also of the need to regroup defensively for, if the truth be told, Wales' scrambled defence was decidedly porous, and they missed far too many first-up tackles for their own good - with Marius Joubert a patently obvious dangerman in midfield.

Jaco van der Westhuyzen, an ever-present under White, would undoubtedly be a loss, though White will perhaps have felt that his inventive flyhalf was a bit too elaborate at times. A J Venter will probably replace Juan Smith in the back row while Ashwin Williamse, looking short of fitness, may also be replaced on the wing.

O'Sullivan's preference for the uncapped Johnny O'Connor as an authentic openside to counter Burger and Co at the breakdown is entirely understandable. The Boks, as Smit conceded, will be identifying their manifest problems there on Saturday, where Burger stepped over the line once too often for Paddy O'Brien's liking.

While Burger was cooling down for 10 minutes, Dwayne Peel chipped and gathered before Colin Charvis took the ball on. The scrumhalf went left off the recycle under the Welsh posts but was summarily nailed by Joe van Niekerk, who had made no attempt to retreat behind the hindmost foot and came in from the side. It seemed as clear a case of what the yellow card was introduced for as anything could be, but perhaps because Burger was already in the bin, it wasn't applied.

It's funny how the bigger test-playing countries are more likely to get away with such tactics - when breached, resort to anything to avert a seven-pointer - as Ireland might if playing a team from a 'lesser' rugby nation. But, with New Zealand's Paul Honiss in charge, and O'Brien and Huw Watkins on the line, you'd hope that won't be the case next Saturday.