Jack Nicklaus used to say that Majors were easier because only a few players believed they could win. Padraig Harrington reached the same conclusion. In that case this is simple. Rory McIlroy is the hottest player on the planet; Scottie Scheffler is contesting his eighth straight Major as the world’s number one, the longest such streak since peak Tiger Woods; Xander Schauffele is the only player with top 10s in his last five Major appearances. He won it last year. Remember?
Anybody else? Bryson DeChambeau leads everybody in scoring average, birdie average, and strokes gained off the tee at the US PGA Championship since 2020. He also punches with a horseshoe in his glove. Collin Morikawa is the only player who figures in the top 10 for driving accuracy and greens in regulation on the PGA Tour this season, a classic recipe for Major golf. He’s a former champion too.
Did we mention Justin Thomas? Ludwig Aberg? Viktor Hovland? Are we forgetting somebody?
For many years the US PGA Championship had a reputation for throwing up winners from outer space. In the last 50 years it has produced 17 one-time Major winners, significantly more than any of golf’s other elite events. Many of them were players of no pedigree at this level who surfed a glorious wave: Shaun Micheel, Rich Beem, Mark Brooks, Wayne Grady, Y.E Yang, Steve Elkington, John Mahaffey, Jeff Sluman and others.
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Is there a lurker in the field this week? If trends can be trusted the US PGA has a different personality now. Since Jimmy Walker in 2016, every champion has been a multiple Major winner, either then or soon afterwards. No shocks. In the top 10 last year only Thomas Detry entered the picture from left field, and he was six shots back.
It is easy to dwell on McIlroy and Scheffler and it is too soon to be wrong. Funny how the world spins. On this week 12 months ago McIlroy filed for divorce and Scheffler was arrested for a driving offence in the early morning darkness. In his practice round on Wednesday he wore a T-shirt in the burnt orange colour of the most famous mug shot in golf, a méme made flesh.
In his press conferences Scheffler never parts the curtain on his feelings or his inner thoughts, but McIlroy often does. This week there was an interesting peek into his mentality. A few of the top players were asked which part of their game they would like to borrow from another player and who that player was.
Quick as a flash Jordan Spieth said he would love to take Scheffler’s approach play. Scheffler had given every question a short, circumspect answer, but for that one he launched into a riff, name-checking McIlroy, Sam Burns, Tiger Woods, Spieth and Jon Rahm, identifying the part of their game that he coveted or admired.
When the same reporter asked McIlroy that question, though, he shut him down. He had no desire to be diplomatic or to flatter any of his peers. “I wouldn’t trade [any part of my game],” he said.
The reporter went in again, slightly changing the angle of attack. McIlroy balked him. “I’m focused on my game,” he said. Next question.
In golf numbers can be manipulated to say anything. The spectrum of numbers to express McIlroy’s dominance of Quail Hollow, though, is staggering. Not only has he won here four times but his scoring average on this course is nearly a shot better than anybody else.
His career total at Quail Hollow is 102 under par, which is 55 shots better than the next player. He has the best career score on the par-5s, and, since 2010 he has the most birdies on the Green Mile, the treacherous closing stretch where the tournament is likely to be won and lost. Consider that statistic for a second: when the US PGA was played at Quail Hollow in 2017 there were more double bogeys on the Green Mile than birdies.
Why does it suit McIlroy’s game? An analysis by the PGA found that there were only two other venues on tour where driving had a greater influence on the outcome. The lay-out of the course suits McIlroy’s hard draw off the tee, and only two players on tour hit the ball further than he does.
In a deeper dive by GolfData.com they discovered that long approaches to the green were critical. From inside 100 yards McIlroy’s statistics for proximity to the hole are below the PGA Tour average but from outside 200 yards his numbers are significantly above average. By those points of difference McIlroy has turned Quail Hollow into a colony.
With so much rainfall this week the emphasis on carry off the tee will be enormous. “This is a bomber’s paradise,” said DeChambeau, licking his lips.
Shane Lowry doesn’t share DeChambeau’s enthusiasm. His second place finish last weekend lifted him into the world’s top 10 for the first time in his career but he has no fondness for Quail Hollow. “I have no record around here at all,” he said on Wednesday. “You know, bad. Not played well.”
His form coming here in other years, though, was never as good as it is now, and when he explored his stats a little more deeply he said he found reasons to be hopeful. But Lowry is trying to talk himself into a challenge. McIlroy doesn’t need to.
