Dublin look to have advanced too far for Donegal

That match three years ago is now a scary but merry memory for Dublin – like the time we ran out of petrol in Transylvania – given all the good things that have followed their survival.

For all of the denunciation heaped on the match, this meeting has been one of the most eagerly awaited matches in recent times.

Since Dublin’s powerful attacking machine rattled off a third successive national title last spring, curiosity has grown as to how an expertly defensive strategy might cope with it.

Donegal’s revival after last year’s flat line has encouraged a view that we will now get to see that challenge played out in front of the season’s first full house at Croke Park.

Perhaps some of that steam has been vented after the fate of Monaghan who have adapted much the same style as Donegal. Their reinforced rearguard was optimistically believed likely to give the champions a good run in the quarter-finals.

The 17-point defeat contained an element of bad luck. Colin Walshe, Monaghan's All Star corner back sustained a serious injury he tried to run off. Dublin poured through for the vital scores that put the result beyond doubt before half-time. Whereas that hastened the end, it didn't bring it about.

Monaghan learned what Donegal learned in 2011. A defensive strategy only gets you so far. You have to threaten opponents as well as frustrate them. Donegal manager Jim McGuinness acknowledged this afterwards. It was all the more tantalising for him in that he had players who could have pulled it off if they hadn’t retreated into a shell after about 45 minutes.

The differential between the teams has stretched in the past three years but such is the faith in McGuinness’s ability to devise tactics and direct his players in their implementation that there remains an ambiguity. Maybe Dublin can be outmanoeuvred.

The champions’ main challenges to date have come from teams that attacked them and pressurised their defence rather than opponents who have tried to shut up shop.

It is expected that Donegal won't concede Stephen Cluxton's kick-outs as they did in 2011 and will press up and also unwrap a full-court press at some stage, getting Michael Murphy in at full forward, and maybe even at the very start in a bid to catch Dublin off guard.

Any team playing Dublin needs a lead to defend. For teams with defensive orientations, chasing down big deficits is difficult.

Lock down

The

Ulster

champions will feel if Monaghan could lock down the approaches for between 20 and 25 minutes then surely they can do get to half-time still in touch. The third quarter has been Donegal’s moving time and they will back themselves to take the fight to Dublin at that stage.

They'll have to retool centrefield because although Neil Gallagher will take on anyone under high ball neither he nor the promising Odhrán MacNiallais are good bets to chase Michael Macauley or Cian O'Sullivan all afternoon so auxiliary troops will be needed and Rory Kavanagh's likely to come into contention.

But Dublin are too well equipped to live with whatever pressure Donegal can exert. Physically they’re not going to wilt and mentally they’ve been good at patiently waiting for teams to blow themselves out.

Even Donegal people would accept the county isn’t what it was in 2012. But are they even at the same level as in 2011? They have bounced back well from last year but the vital signs aren’t as vibrant as three years ago.

Karl Lacey has recovered from a difficult 2013 but hasn't recovered the supreme drive of 2011-12. In addition he has had to shake off a hamstring strain. Colm McFadden isn't in anything near the form of those years either and Michael Murphy is needed everywhere.

Dublin have the confidence and form to play this any way Donegal want. Eventually in 2011 Bernard Brogan figured out the best way of playing the system and he now has much more support than then.

Jim Gavin’s side will need to be disciplined and not succumb to provocation as Diarmuid Connolly did three years ago. But the force is with them at the moment, just as it’s fading from Donegal.