Donegal carry too much power and conviction

After two attention grabbing semi-finals with unexpected winners, you’d normally expect more of a sense of infinite possibility about tomorrow’s GAA All-Ireland football final.

The presence of the champions from two years ago and Kerry may narrow the scope for romance but that's easy to say now when four months ago Donegal were available at 20 to 1 for the title and their opponents were 9 to 1.

Both teams arrive via transformative Augusts. If few were surprised to see them emerge from the quarter-finals, the matches in the last four have revolutionised the season at the very end.

No Dublin after a year in which many were posing as the central question about the champions not "whether" but "how many". No Mayo after a run of championships that would have convinced nearly the whole country that, were Jim Gavin's team to fall, they'd be the beneficiaries.

Different creatures

This weekend’s finalists are very different creatures. Donegal are back with much the team that won the All-Ireland in 2012 – Ryan McHugh providing genetically engineered cover for his brother Mark and Odhrán Mac Niallais bringing freshness, ball winning and a great attitude to the middle of the field.

Kerry on the other hand, having emerged from a golden age and having shed the now customary tranche of multi-medallists during the winter before losing the most celebrated player of the last 10 years to injury, field nine players who are starting an All-Ireland final for the first time.

Most relevantly this indicates teams at different points in the development cycle. Donegal are at or slightly beyond peak whereas Kerry are on the way up. It’s one of the reasons why it’s not easy to go against Jim McGuinness’s side.

It’s not that inexperienced teams can’t win All-Irelands but just that they’re less likely to do it against opponents who’ve been there before and are nurturing the sort of grievance Donegal are after last year’s abject loss of the title.

Firstly though there are caveats to be noted. Eamonn Fitzmaurice's team have momentum after a prolonged semi-final contest against Mayo.

Good luck

They should have been beaten at a couple of different points and were blessed with good luck or at least their opponents’ misfortune in coming out on the wrong side of refereeing mistakes and seeing two of their most important players accidentally crack their heads together off each other.

But it’s important to note that when the final place was there for the taking, Mayo couldn’t and Kerry did. Furthermore what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger and Kerry are undoubtedly stronger.

They are also in the strange position of being underdogs, which is a liberating experience for a team which, despite their platoon of rookies, can still boast more All-Ireland medals in their starting line-up than Donegal.

Against that the Ulster champions have never been obviously affected by their status going into matches, whether hot favourites or distant outsiders. When playing a more experienced Kerry two years ago and before the All-Ireland they managed, albeit with a late scare – which in the circumstances made the win all the more creditable.

The double act of Kieran Donaghy and James O'Donoghue only came into focus in Kerry's last outings, against Mayo. It's unlikely to work in the same way tomorrow. Donegal excel at stopping high-ball attacks and would never have allowed O'Donoghue's run for the Croke Park goal to be made unaccompanied.

Everyone accepts that Fitzmaurice will be sufficiently aware to set up with sufficient caution to avoid the calamities that befell Dublin. He’ll know that man-to-man marking in defence is liable to turn into a Donegal four-on-two or even five-on-two once they work those collective break-outs.

Nonetheless it’s not certain that Donegal will need the sort of spectacular success they had in the semi-final. They out-scored Dublin 3-10 to 0-8 in the last 40 minutes but they were coming back from a couple of five-point deficits in the first half-hour. It’s equally accepted that there’s likely to more equilibrium tomorrow.

On semi-final form Kerry have an advantage at centrefield but how decisive will that be given that, unlike Mayo, Donegal will quickly start to disrupt rather than compete if David Moran starts winning everything, which is unlikely in the company of Neil Gallagher, Rory Kavanagh and, at times, Michael Murphy.

Physical maturity

The big advantage in the middle third, allowing that Kerry upset Mayo by their success in this area, will be the Donegal forwards. None of the Kerry defence is taller than the man they’re marking and only one is heavier. That physical maturity gives an edge when the team is so adept at moving the ball quickly.

That physical struggle is going to make it very hard for a young Kerry team to impose itself sufficiently to unleash the quality in their attack.

At the other end Donegal’s conversion rate was transformed into something approaching 70 per cent the last day.

It might be tempting to question whether McGuinness’s team can go back to the well so soon after such an elemental performance. But from this perspective, it would also be wrong.