Division 1
There isn’t quite the range of possibilities that we have become used to going into the top division’s final weekend. At the top, Derry lead from Dublin with Kerry lying third.
The top three places in the division before the last round of matches is played have not been filled by provincial champions for 14 years and it’s a sign that, for all the assumed indifference of top teams, a good league campaign still has appeal for the leading counties.
Priorities entering the competition were different. Kerry were short some players when Derry came to Tralee on opening night whereas their visitors had targeted the fixture to the extent that Glen’s Conor Glass travelled just a week after inspiring his club to the All-Ireland title.
It paid off and Derry have topped the table more or less ever since.
“Emerging teams measure themselves against the best and invariably it’s been Kerry and Dublin over the last 10 years,” said Derry manager Mickey Harte after the Kerry match. “You have to measure yourself against the best but the best of what they have on any given day – if it’s not their full hand, you understand that.”
Curiously, when he had his chance against Dublin Harte instead asset-stripped the team, giving Glass a much-deserved night off.
Dublin have approached matters from the other perspective. Manager Dessie Farrell has consistently played down any ambition or even interest in the league, reminding everyone at one stage that relegation to Division 2 hadn’t worked out badly for them last year.
Yet the All-Ireland champions have been in blistering form since losing the first two fixtures of the season, against Monaghan and Mayo. After an accomplished dismissal of Galway in Salthill last week, Farrell was again keen to underline his indifference when sizing up the last fixture
“I’d like to try some lads out and get some more game time into some lads that are coming back. We can afford to do that now, whether that sees us in a league final or not we won’t lose too much sleep over it.”
It’s hard to see why Dublin wouldn’t be interested given the low-jeopardy weeks to follow in the Leinster championship. The same applies to Jack O’Connor and Kerry even though they have an extremely narrow window to the final. Their only means of qualifying is if they beat Galway and Dublin drop points against Tyrone.
Otherwise, their scoring difference trails Derry by 16 and Dublin by 18. Tyrone still have a theoretical chance if they win in Croke Park and Kerry lose but their scoring difference is 10 worse off than Kerry’s and 29 behind Dublin.
Relegation is a straight contest between Galway and Roscommon – second and third in last year’s league – who are on five and three points, respectively. They drew in their league fixture and so should the latter win and the former lose, both would be on five and the decision would be based on scoring difference.
That would guarantee Roscommon’s survival, as they are three points better off than Galway, a differential that would only increase if the outcomes necessary to trigger it actually happened.
Forecast: finalists – Derry, Dublin. Relegation – Monaghan (already confirmed), Roscommon
Division 2
At the outset, Armagh and Donegal were regarded as the hottest of favourites for promotion. Relegated 12 months ago, they became the third pair of counties in the last 10 years to bounce straight back up in tandem a year after demotion. They also manged to do it with a round to spare.
Also doing it with a round to spare were Kildare. A decent championship had left them seen as promotion possibilities should Armagh or Donegal slip, instead Glenn Ryan’s team had a nightmare campaign, have yet to register a point and were relegated before the schedule was complete.
Meath started poorly as well but pulled out of the tailspin whereas Cork – another county believed to have a shot at promotion – also rebounded after three defeats.
The second relegation place will be between Louth and Fermanagh. When the counties played last week, Louth put six goals past their rivals and they need only a point from their match against doomed Kildare. Fermanagh take on Cavan, needing a win over their neighbours.
The Tailteann trapdoor opens for Kildare and Fermanagh but of Kildare’s possible opponents on their side of the Leinster championship draw, only Louth will have finished above them in the league. So, the provincial finalists’ exemption for Sam Maguire entry remains a possibility.
Similarly, Fermanagh’s route to the Ulster final is blocked by only one team ahead of the them in the league, Armagh, who won the divisional fixture earlier in March by four points.
Forecast: finalists – Armagh, Donegal (already confirmed). Relegation – Kildare (already confirmed), Fermanagh
Division 3
As has often been the case, this division has proved the most open and competitive despite the overwhelming favouritism of Down and Westmeath in terms of promotion. Both remain unbeaten but closest challengers Clare still have a shot, as they travel to Newry to take on Down.
The Banner must win however against Conor Laverty’s previously unbeaten team. Westmeath can confirm their promotion by beating Sligo but should Clare fail to win, the midlanders will go up regardless of their result.
Overall, it means that seven counties out of the eight in the division are playing for something at the weekend.
Sligo are the only ones not in the running for either promotion or relegation.
Limerick have already slumped from Division 2 to Division 4 in two winless league seasons. Wicklow need to win in Antrim to avoid demotion. Offaly have a slim vulnerability in that defeat by Limerick would leave them exposed to a Wicklow win in Belfast.
Forecast: finalists – Down, Westmeath. Relegation – Limerick (already confirmed), Wicklow
Division 4
With no relegation, this division features an exciting pile-up at the top of the table. Laois look likely to go up, as they face bottom of the table Waterford needing only to avoid defeat. Even if they lose, their scoring difference is likely to see them advance.
The three teams behind on eight points all have a chance of promotion but should Wexford cap their late run by defeating Longford at home, it means that the three contenders will all have beaten each other. So, if Leitrim beat Tipperary, they would be hoping for a Wexford win, as they have them on the head-to-head.
Were Longford, however, to win, they would supersede Leitrim on the same basis, having beaten them earlier in March.
Forecast: finalists – Laois, Leitrim.
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