Nicky English: Galway lack Limerick’s self-belief when match is there to be won

Saturday’s semi-final is an amalgam of “ifs” and “buts”. Limerick have been struggling all championship bar the Cork match when they were impressive and looked like they were on the road to recovery, but it wasn’t sustained in the Munster final even though they narrowly won.

They have sustained significant injuries to Sean Finn, Cian Lynch and now Declan Hannon, so it has been tough for them but they have managed to keep going.

They have always been able to get there in the end – maybe abetted by the opposition – but relying on much the same players, Nickie Quaid, Kyle Hayes, Diarmaid Byrnes and midfield whereas the weight in attack has fallen on Tom Morrissey and Aaron Gillane.

The selection has Gearóid Hegarty at wing back and Hayes moving over to centre back but for me there are less complicated ways of replacing Hannon. Cian Lynch is named at 11 but again I think he needs something different coming back after injury and subdued form – maybe up to corner forward or back to midfield or even centre back.

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They haven’t been at full strength in more senses than just undermined by injuries. Their scoring rate, other than against Cork, is in the region of 25 points, which I’ve been saying is a lot below their optimum, but that optimum included meaningful contributions from Lynch, Hegarty and Peter Casey – who for one reason or another have not been able to replicate that in 2023.

Even in those years when they were winning more convincingly they never found it easy against Galway. Last year they were level at 66 minutes but Limerick took enough of their chances to score whereas Galway didn’t.

I think Galway are better than last year. There was a lot to like about their Leinster final when they came from eight points down to take what should have been a winning position. Conor Whelan, ably supported by Kevin Cooney, was brilliant up front, and held that form the last day.

He’s in the form of his life and this could be the day that the loss of Seán Finn really hits home.

The problem is that whereas Galway are much improved on 2022, their outcomes do not appear to be. There appears to be a confidence issue. Henry Shefflin said that they work hard but need a bit of belief and he is just waiting for the day it all clicks. We all are to an extent, and if it’s this weekend even Limerick won’t live with it.

So many players are in form. The Cooneys are playing well. Cathal Mannion is such a clever operator, and Evan Niland is flawless from frees but also contributing in open play. If it all clicks ... but how could you be confident going into a semi-final when it didn’t all click against Tipp or in the Leinster final or, most alarmingly, against Dublin?

They had 18 wides the last day and missed three or four goal chances they should have put away. They will eyeball Limerick, no doubt, but who will have the greater self-belief? More likely the champions.

On Sunday Kilkenny are edging back to full strength with the return of Adrian Mullen and Richie Reid, but injuries are hanging over Clare as Conor Cleary is unlikely to feature and Aidan McCarthy is out.

Then they have concerns about David McInerney, John Conlon and although he is hardly mentioned despite having had to go off in the Munster final Shane O’Donnell, who would be a huge loss.

Conlon missed last year’s semi-final between the teams and in my view that accounted not for Clare losing but losing as badly as they did. It’s an anxious time for Brian Lohan because Cleary’s absence in the Munster final opened the door for Gillane to get man of the match.

Their difficulties have been compounded by very inefficient shooting, which effectively cost them a Munster title.

In the Dublin quarter-final Clare squandered a pile of chances before managing to reassert themselves in a scoring sense with Mark Rodgers good and Tony Kelly re-emerging after a mixed Munster final. Both of them and David Fitzgerald have been carrying the scoring responsibility.

One consideration will be does Mikey Butler take Kelly again, and if so will he be as effective given that Kelly looks on an upward curve?

Kilkenny under Derek Lyng, as previously under Brian Cody, do exactly what it says on the tin. They’ll block and hook and there won’t be a lot of room around the middle third. They’ve been getting goals. Eoin Cody, Walter Walsh and even Cillian Buckley have been on target, and in Cleary’s absence they will look to exploit the high ball.

Clare need a bit more room to play than Kilkenny do. Last year they had little energy so it didn’t matter whether they could find space or not. That won’t happen this year, and I give them a really good chance if McCarthy and Cleary is the limit of the injuries. But will they score enough?

With Kilkenny scoring freely, Clare will probably need more than 30 points. I’m not sure they can hit that.