GAA Previews: Who’s playing who in the All-Ireland SFC quarter-finals, and who’ll make it through?

All-Ireland SFC quarter-finals

Saturday

Kerry v Tyrone, Croke Park, 3.45pm – Live on GAAGO

This draw is almost certainly a matter of greater trepidation for the All-Ireland champions, Kerry, than it is for their predecessors. That is partly because of the less-stressful path walked by Jack O’Connor’s team, but also the historical record between the counties, most immediately the 2021 semi-final.

In truth neither has been in especially impressive form, but Kerry did the needful and won the Munster title even if the group matches that followed were mixed. Tyrone have not managed to find consistency in championship in either of the years since winning the All-Ireland.

They kick-started their season with a win over Donegal in Ballybofey but until then their form oscillated wildly.

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Managers Feargal Logan and Brian Dooher probably couldn’t have wished for a better pairing. However stuttering their team’s form, the sight of Kerry waiting in Croke Park will galvanise them.

The win two years ago was bad luck for Peter Keane, whose last match in charge it was. Losing David Clifford for extra time and going down by a point was a big frustration.

Since then the Kerry defence has improved and Clifford is still in great form. Centrefield has become a problem area in the absence of the retired David Moran, who dominated the sector in 2021 against Tyrone’s named pairing.

The Ulster side isn’t very much changed but Darragh Canavan has developed into the type of player he threatened to be two years ago when coming off the bench, and is joined by his brother Ruairí.

Key to Tyrone’s win was the goal-scoring knack they demonstrated and every one of the three was necessary in the end. Conor McKenna, who got two of them, is no longer around having returned to Australia and the AFL. It remains an experienced team, though, with big-match credentials.

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Kerry are All-Ireland champions and, under new management since last year, have tightened up. They welcome back Gavin White and Paul Geaney, making counter-attacking pace and forward guile again available to the team.

If Tyrone can pull this into a dogfight, all the better, but their win two years ago owed as much to clever attacking play and ruthless finishing. Their match-ups worked a treat and they just stayed ahead of the game.

Kerry appear to have timed their run well and it will be a slight shock but no sensation should they emerge with their noses in front.

Verdict: Kerry

Armagh v Monaghan, Croke Park, 6pm – Live on GAAGO

In the dramatic musical chairs at the end of the group stages, the one county to displace provincial champions at the top of a table was Armagh. Their narrow win over Galway was fateful for both teams, plunging the latter into a precipitous tumble which ultimately carried them out of the championship and giving Kieran McGeeney’s team an extra week as well as access to the quarter-finals.

The win in Carrick-on-Shannon was a fair coup because leading forward Rian O’Neill was suspended, but in his absence others stood up and Rory Grugan shot them in front at the end.

Monaghan have been playing up to their stereotype, irrepressible when most doubted but not always able to summon their best form. In his first year as manager, Vinny Corey has nonetheless kept them in Division One and reached the last eight of the All-Ireland.

They won’t be fazed by having to play Armagh, having beaten them just two years ago in Ulster – although they narrowly lost to them in last February’s league match.

Both sides have goalkeepers who like to play outfield. In Armagh’s case huge volumes of play go through Ethan Rafferty, whereas Rory Beggan is arguably the original of the species. It militates against early deliveries and tends to encourage slow build-up.

Monaghan reap rewards from overlapping defenders and are resilient and unflagging. Karl O’Connell got up to equalise against Derry and Ryan O’Toole famously undid Tyrone’s Ulster campaign with Conor McCarthy, switching between the wing in defence and attack, coming up with the late winner in Tullamore.

This could go either way without creating shockwaves, but O’Neill’s return and the form of Grugan and others gives Armagh an edge, which they have become adept at exploiting. Monaghan’s form has fluctuated and is accordingly less reliable.

Verdict: Armagh

Sunday

Derry v Cork, Croke Park, 1.45pm – Live on RTÉ

The drama surrounding Rory Gallagher’s departure from Derry was assumed to have played a role in their almost distracted Ulster final display, which did yield them the desired back-to-back titles.

Still carrying that disruption, they managed nearly to lose to Monaghan in the group, but drew, and gradually rediscovered their form. There have been improvements since Derry were last in Croke Park for championship matches just over a year ago.

The return of Ciarán McFaul from the US has strengthened the team, especially now that he is nearly back up to speed, having got game time in recent matches.

It has been pointed out that whereas last year the team was very reliant on a smaller number of scorers, that burden has been far more evenly spread, even though Shane McGuigan is having an even better year than 12 months ago and is firmly in All Star conversations.

Cork’s progress has been arguably the story of the season, from Division Two to losing in Munster to Clare to gradual improvement in the group stages and on to the last eight.

They have had one big asset in the unpredictability of their playing style, which switches from defensive alignment to all-out offence, which helped to take down Mayo, followed by another Division One side, Roscommon.

Centrefield has been a main driver but Derry’s pair, Conor Glass and Brendan Rogers, is one of the top performing in the country, so Ian Maguire and company will have their work cut out.

Things are, however, coming together for Cork. Conor Corbett’s return from his latest injury is a boost for the team and player alike.

They have shown well in their matches, none more impressively so than when getting close to Kerry, but this is a big field with an improving machine heading their way, intent on doing better than last year.

Verdict: Derry

Dublin v Mayo, Croke Park, 4pm – Live on RTÉ

The least knowable of the quarter-finals pitches together the most familiar rivals. It’s two years since Dublin and Mayo played out that memorable semi-final that went to extra time and ended the then champions’ run at six All-Irelands.

The historical significance and excitement aside, it wasn’t a high-quality match, with the low scores after 90 minutes – 0-17 to 0-14 – saying as much.

Neither side have presented a consistently improved version of themselves in the interim, but Mayo are due recognition for what has been achieved this year: a league title, an ability to rebound which has been twice called on and also, unlike their opponents, a whole season in Division One as well as championship victories over both of last year’s All-Ireland finalists on their own turf.

The chaos that tipped the last group match away from them against Cork completely redefined the season but gave Kevin McStay’s team an opportunity to sharpen their ambitions on a high-ranking whetstone such as Galway.

While this drama was playing out, Dublin hiccupped their way to the last eight, interleaving poor displays with laying ruthless waste to weaker teams.

Questions: What have Mayo in the tank on a third successive weekend and, assuming they haven’t been unduly affected by the turnaround, what is their potential in this? For Dublin, who haven’t had much competitive experience of Division One teams (one match all year), how will they get on against such battle-hardened opponents?

Are Dublin simply going up the gears at this stage having stretched themselves in the low-risk environs of Leinster and a manageable All-Ireland group?

Have they the defence to cope with the reborn Aidan O’Shea now that Philip McMahon has retired, whose ability to bring others into the game is a serious asset – as in the interchange for David McBrien’s goal last week?

Will the returning prodigals finally kick on with sustained displays in the vein of Stephen Cluxton, who hasn’t conceded a goal since his return?

Or will the relentless motion of a Mayo team with a deeper panel and a management unafraid of implementing change simply manage the Dublin challenge?

The Leinster champions are likely to drop the hammer on Colm Reape’s restarts, hoping to exploit the new Mayo ‘keeper’s lack of experience on a big day in front of 80,0000 – albeit that he’s already won a man-of-the-match gong at the venue for the league final three months ago.

Very difficult to call but Dublin’s ability to find scores more easily – even allowing for the calibre of opposition and based on the few opponents in common – is the persistent tug on the sleeve.

Verdict: Dublin