RUGBY:Eight years ago Ireland faced a point of no return. They were without a win against the Scots in a dozen attempts and, coming off a 50-pointer at Twickenham, they threw caution to the wind with a new team. The 44-22 victory represented a turning point. The good times rolled for years afterwards.

Fast forward through another six championship wins in a row and today's game, in its own way, is a high-stakes game of a different hue. Forget the two coaches under pressure. This, again, could almost be era-defining stuff. Defeat today at Croke Park and, you'd have to think, the good times are over. Victory with a good performance, however, and Ireland will have climbed out of the pit.

The nucleus of that team of 2000 having remained intact all the way to, and through, the recent World Cup, a raft of injuries more than form have forced a steady trickle of changes. Only three of the XV that started eight years ago will do so again today - Brian O'Driscoll, Ronan O'Gara and John Hayes.

Indeed, of more relevance, as Eddie O'Sullivan observed yesterday, only seven of the starting XV that put England to the sword last spring - and thereafter became the Untouchables - line up for kick-off today.

Only two could be deemed out-and-out form changes, namely Eoin Reddan at scrum-half and Jamie Heaslip at number eight.

Bernard Jackman's inclusion ahead of Rory Best is in part attributable to Jerry Flannery being hors de combat, while injuries have meant Paul O'Connell and Shane Horgan only getting as far as the bench. But yesterday, as expected, Girvan Dempsey's hip injury saw him join Gordon D'Arcy and the retired Denis Hickie on the sidelines.

So, an SOS to Geordan Murphy? How ironic. One wonders how his knee is, and how his head must be. This is only his fourth outing at fullback in 17 games, in which time he's had numbers 14 and 22 as many times, and five times been out of the 22 altogether. Confused? No, probably not, for he can be in no doubt that, as against Argentina, he owes his selection to Dempsey's injury.

Of Dempsey's bruised left hip, O'Sullivan said: "I'd be very hopeful he'd be fit for the next game in two weeks."

As for the "opportunity" this afforded Murphy, he added: "Obviously Girvan is our starting fullback, there's no question about that, and Geordan is our number two fullback . . . I know he's very happy to be back."

A less-than-ringing endorsement then.

The Scots, of course, are in a pit of their own, and their selection suggests they'll come out swinging, with Simon Webster a target runner at outside centre in a back line loaded with wingers. Few teams play fluently against them, and of late, too, they also seemed designed to make Ireland struggle.

A fortnight after that 43-13 win over England a year ago, Ireland limped to a 19-18 win in Murrayfield. After years of generally high-scoring romps, there'd also been a 15-9 arm wrestle in Lansdowne two years ago and then, of course, there was the alarm-ringing warm-up defeat in Edinburgh last August.

In the latter two occasions the Scots ran hard and straight, and won the collisions. But that was a shadow Irish team - only four of which start today - and, however much inspired by injury or pressure for change, today's team features far more players in form and in their best positions. Furthermore, the loss of Jason White and preference for Scott MacLeod to help rectify their lineout problems diminish Scotland's power game, as does their plethora of wingers.

The battle up front will be key, not least Jackman's darts, with the collisions, as O'Sullivan admitted, Ireland's starting point.

The Scots' pack play and effectiveness in the collisions has been good, and given they have that master spoiler Ally Hogg back in their ranks, Ireland would not want to start running the ball from too deep.

If Ireland achieve even parity up front, you'd imagine that on a windy day, the rejuvenated Ronan O'Gara would give them better game management for, undoubtedly, Chris Paterson's selection at 10 for Scotland is a huge roll of the dice.

As O'Gara highlighted before the French game, Ireland don't need to go for the big plays every time. By playing territory, getting some go-forward from the maul and the backrowers, using Reddan to attack the blind side, they have more variety to utilise.

Although O'Sullivan maintained Murphy's inclusion "doesn't change us at all", you'd hope O'Gara and O'Driscoll will be hitting the Leicester fullback in that wide channel outside 13, where he is so effective at making the plays and the Simon Webster-Nikki Walker defensive axis could be vulnerable.

Ireland need only two or three well-executed set moves or moments of inspiration to make the difference. They have that in them. Home advantage will be far more palpable with a 5pm kick-off under lights. A win can rightly be expected, and the performance is more important than the margin.

Overall head-to-head: Played 121, Ireland 53 wins, Scotland 62 wins, 5 draws, 1 abandoned.

Last five meetings: 2007: Scotland 31 Ireland 21 (Murrayfield); Scotland 18 Ireland 19 (Murrayfield). 2006: Ireland 15 Scotland 9 (Lansdowne Road). 2005: Scotland 13 Ireland 40 (Murrayfield). 2004: Ireland 37 Scotland 16 (Lansdowne Road).

Highest scores: Ireland - 44-22 (Lansdowne Road, 2000); Scotland - 38-10 (Murrayfield, 1997).

Biggest wins: Ireland - 36-6 (Murrayfield, 2003); Scotland - 38-10 (Murrayfield, 1997).

Betting (Paddy Power): 1/7 Ireland, 25/1 Draw, 4/1 Scotland. Handicap odds (= Scotland +12pts) 10/11 Ireland, 25/1 Draw, 10/11 Scotland.

Forecast: Ireland to win.