The rise of robotics: Could machines eventually replace humans?

Fear of machines replacing human labour is nothing new. In 19th century England the Luddites went around smashing textile machinery while their contemporaries in France threw their wooden clogs – sabots – into the works, thus giving us the word sabotage.

Some of the great labour disputes of the past half century have had their roots in new technologies replacing traditional crafts and skills. But those technologies were largely human operated. The latest wave of robotics is somewhat different, however. We now have machines controlling other machines and making decisions which were previously human territory.

Three Ireland strategy director Justin Conroy takes an optimistic view of the future for humans in this new world. “Robotics is not a new concept,” he notes. “The first time it entered the public domain dates back to the 1920s and Czech writer Karel Capek who introduced the word robot to the world in his play R.U.R. (Rossum’s Universal Robots). The Czech word robota means dangerous work or forced labour. Also, in the 1920s a New York Times headline announced ‘the march of the machines makes idle hands’. But a tipping point has been reached in the last 10 years or so.”

That tipping point has much to do with data and advances in artificial intelligence. According to Conroy there are three main categories of robot. The first is robotic process automation (RPA) which he describes as a “dumbot”.

“It handles basic mundane repetitive tasks a bit like a macro in Excel”, he says.

After that you have robots which incorporate machine learning and improve their performance over time. And then you have the ones with AI built in and they can make a lot of decisions on their own.

Data availability

But the rapid advances seen in recent years are firmly based on the increased availability of data. “This year we will produce more data that we did in the last 5,000 years combined,” Conroy points out. “They have now moved from exabytes to zettabytes as a measurement. That’s from quintillion bytes to sextillion. That’s just phenomenal. We have reached a tipping point in the sheer volume of data we are producing. And our ability to synthesise and use it intelligently has also grown dramatically.”

At a practical level that has brought robotics into people’s everyday lives, often without them being aware of it. “Cities like Barcelona are using robotics and the data from internet of things (IoT) sensors to control the power grid, manage buses and traffic and so on. They can use the system to dim the lights on streets with less traffic and so on. And all these decisions are made by robotics.”

Closer to home he points to the use of robotics in farms around Ireland to milk cows, predict when they will calf, and assist with land management.

Dermot O’Neill is manager of the Cobotics Ireland skillnet which aims to grow the Irish robotics industry by increasing the number of businesses using robots and providing training to both industry and graduates.

“Robotics is not new to Ireland,” he says. “The first robot came here 30 years ago.”

Adoption of the technology has been fairly slow and variable since, however. “There are different opinions on the level of automation that is desirable in manufacturing environment. Some manufacturing processes are completely carried out by robots from end to end but when you move the medtech and SME worlds the level of automation can be almost nil. Incorporating robotics into a manufacturing process is not simple, there’s a lot of complex technologies like machine learning and AI involved.”

But adoption is growing, nevertheless. “We are seeing robotics being used in pharmacies to fill prescriptions. In the healthcare sector we are seeing an increase in robotic surgery. In food and beverage manufacturing there is a high level of automation and robotics adoption is very high.”

Return on investment

But the decision to use robotics usually comes down to potential return on investment. “The formula for that is usually volume,” O’Neill adds. “If you don’t have volume the time to achieve a return extends.”

For many Irish companies, low volumes can put them off investment in robotics. “There is a low uptake in some sectors for that reason,” he says. “The other really important area is safety. That’s a huge concern and safety legislation is a bit behind the advances in technology.”

Adoption is on the rise, however, and the question remains if humans have anything to fear. Not according to Conroy. “Gerd Leonhard of the Futures Agency often speaks about robotics and AI,” he says. “He has pointed out that robotics can imitate basic cognitive functions in broad terms, but it can’t replicate human only traits such as creativity, ethical values and so on. They can’t be replicated. Robots can take on the mundane tasks and humans can do the creative work. We are now at an intersection point between AI, robotics and humans where value can be created.”

And while some of today’s jobs may be replaced, many new ones will be created. “Many of the roles people will be performing in 20 years’ time probably haven’t been invented yet,” says Conroy. “I’m pretty optimistic. Roles are evolving that require more human only skills.”

And human skills will be required to manage the technology as well. “Many companies would like to shift to automated lines but need the skills to do it,” says O’Neill. “There is a shortage of robotics skills in the industry and in the higher education institutions. Technology specialists are at a premium on the global stage and companies in Ireland are looking around the world to secure skills. World class businesses want world class employees and if businesses want to adopt robotics they need world class employees, the two go hand in hand.”

Cobotics Ireland is addressing that skills deficit by delivering training in robotics to SMEs, multinational companies and other organisations through the Cobotics Skillnet, new robotics apprenticeships and continuous development training. The organisation is also working with GMIT on the development of third level robotics qualifications.