Gold is enjoying a boom. Its value has risen by almost 30 per cent over the past 12 months and there’s no obvious sign of that slowing down.
“Market volatility is an indirect factor,” says David Russell, chief executive of Goldcore, a precious metals dealer with offices in Dublin, the UK and the United States. “The broader markets are volatile because of the uncertainty we have in the world. Uncertainty has ramped up since 2020, with Covid, the war in Ukraine and the tension in the Middle East.
“Russia started divesting from dollar-based assets once sanctions were applied to them and increased their gold reserves. In a prudent step, a lot of other countries started to do similar. We’re at a level of uncertainty unseen since the Cuban missile crisis.”
Such prudence stems from our perception of the worth of gold, which has been seen as highly valuable to humans since the earliest civilisations.
“If you think about a gold bar that you see in a movie, there are 440 ounces in one of those, so those bars are worth over $1 million each,” says Paul Nicholson, head of investment strategy at Davy.
That the volatile geopolitical situation could cause the price of gold to rise makes sense, says Russell.
“In western Europe and the US there are a lot of investors who haven’t lived through financial gyrations and wealth destruction caused by geopolitics. We see a safe-haven status for gold in times of geopolitical issues and inflation,” he says.
There are strategic and tactical reasons for investing in gold, with European and US investors following Asia’s lead.
“It’s an opportunity more popular with Asian investors; it’s less common in the US,” says Nicholson. “Chinese retail investors are looking at it more. Equities and real estate have been a challenge for them so gold demand has surged there. We’re starting to see that in other markets as well.
“From a tactical perspective, it does well in an inflationary environment. Geopolitics, again, plays a role in increasing demand. Fiscal profligacy, with deficits going higher, have people seeking to diversify away from bonds which has made gold more attractive.”
Despite the current rise, gold is priced below its previous historical highs, when adjusted for inflation. However, Nicholson believes it is on course to match that peak.
“If you look at the real gold price, all the way back to Bretton Woods [in 1944], and adjust for inflation we’re getting back to a peak. The main peaks were at the end of the 1970s, in 2011 and today. We’re getting up to that peak level when adjusted for inflation.”
The current state of uncertainty globally has been a boon to gold prices and Russell said more investors are likely to add to demand.
“When there is a sell-off in other asset classes, gold tends to do well. It’s very much a safe-haven investment, particularly at a national level with governments. When there is an increase in uncertainty, there’s an increase in the gold price,” he said.
“It used to be the preserve of the very wealthy. It has become more accessible to a broader range of investors over the last 20 or 30 years. There’s a growing understanding of the safe-haven nature of gold to a new generation of investors.”
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That new generation is likely to see gold as a safe-haven investment and Russell expects that to keep aiding its growth in value.
“Retail investors and high-net-worth individuals haven’t participated as much in the bull market; it has mostly been central banks and funds. That will change,” he said.
“When trust is low, you want to look at gold as an investment. It’s increasingly important as we see uncertainty continue to increase. There’s nothing on the horizon at the moment to indicate a de-escalation in uncertainty.”