Euro 2028 figures hard to predict but Ireland is playing the long game

The best football fans in the world will get to prove themselves on home turf following the news that Ireland is set to co-host the Uefa Euro 2028 championships along with the UK. The news is not just good for sport – tourism chiefs are also hoping for a bounty, given that three million tickets will be available for the tournament, a hefty chunk of which will come Ireland’s way.

In their bid, the Football Association of Ireland (FAI) said €241 million of socio-economic benefits would be generated in Ireland, against a cost of between €65 million and €93 million. These projections were made by the Department of Tourism but were later scorned by Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe, who noted the figures did not accurately account for displacement of tourists due to the tournament.

Other critics have pointed out that the expected boost is overblown, given that the championships will take place during Ireland’s high tourism season, when hotel beds and restaurant tables are already thin on the ground, if not non-existent.

Ireland’s ability to cope with the demands of the tournament is also under scrutiny. Dublin’s hotel stock is at capacity and Dublin Airport is already in danger of exceeding its passenger limits. Bearing this in mind, the economic benefit predictions begin to look fanciful, if not downright false.

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There is no doubt that big sporting events put bums on seats and tourists on the streets. Next year’s Olympic Games in Paris are expected to generate between €5 billion and €11 billion in tourism spend for France. But the sums don’t always add up. An extreme example is Qatar, which spent an estimated $229 billion on its infamous hosting of the 2022 Fifa World Cup against a record-breaking but still, relatively speaking, paltry revenue of €6.5 billion.

According to Kelli O’Keeffe, managing director with Teneo Ireland Sports Advisory, Ireland has a “proven track record of delivering world class major sporting events”, such as the Ryder Cup and the Open.

“This is going to be another proof point to demonstrate how impressive Ireland is as a host destination,” she says.

O’Keeffe says the potential benefits will go far beyond the predicted €241 million in revenue generated by the tournament, as she believes football fans will take the opportunity to see more of the Emerald Isle while they are here for their chosen fixture.

“While it is acknowledged that this is already a busy time for Dublin’s hotels, restaurants and pubs, travelling fans will venture beyond Dublin and Belfast and will explore the island of Ireland while they are here so it will be a great boost for the country,” she adds.

Aebhric McGibney, director of public and international affairs with Dublin Chamber, agrees.

“Dublin has a vibrant culture and hospitality offering for tourists, backed by an airport with a high level of international connectivity,” she says. “It’s a good spot and easy to get to. And yes, tourist spending on accommodation, hospitality, retail and culture gives a boost to the local economy. In the summer, this spending makes up for the decline in domestic spending, as the Dubs decamp on their holidays across Ireland and overseas.”

The opportunity to host Euro 2028 offers something more than just visitor spending, McGibney adds.

“It gives a chance to showcase the city on a global stage and promote the brand of Dublin to a massive audience,” she says. “Irish football fans at international games are great ambassadors for the country and they will make for great hosts when the Euros come to town.”

The recent American football game between Notre Dame and Navy – which saw the largest congregation of American tourists outside of the United States – shows that well planned sporting events can and do work in Dublin, McGibney points out.

“Fans have plenty of lead time with which to plan their trips and there will be additional bed and air travel flight capacity in time for 2028,” she says.

But travel writer and commentator – and football fan – Eoghan Corry is not convinced by the numbers. Such projections, he believes, rarely resemble the actual impact.

“They use very crude multipliers because it’s such an unknown,” says Corry. “Winning a bid is so important [that] they tend not to be underestimating anything and instead overestimate. Tourism is dogged and beset by crude multipliers based on the assumptions that when somebody arrives they turn into a human ATM and start spending money in every direction. But the reality is much less predictable than that.”

It’s similar to what happens with cruise ship visitors, Cory says; predictions state that each passenger will spend an average of €100 when they disembark but the reality is that many of them go on prepaid excursions organised by the ship and keep their hands firmly in their pockets.

In fact, the average spend for each tourist that visits Ireland is around €1,500 but Corry believes Euro 2028 ticket holders could shell out far less than that for a number of reasons. Dublin has a “huge problem” in terms of its accommodation capacity – one that is unlikely to be solved by 2028 – but enjoys good access by air and sea. This could mean that the tournament attracts a lot of “day trippers”, Corry suggests.

“When you have very good access you don’t see people staying over, particularly if hotel prices in Dublin go anywhere near the Garth Brooks level we saw last year,” he adds.

Calculating the economic impact of a big match shouldn’t be that difficult. Corry points out that “one of the most lucrative sporting events on the planet” takes place in Dublin every two years: “The Ireland-England rugby match in the Six Nations generates around €3 million in income, which is well short of what they are talking about for the Euros.”

A notable exception was the Notre Dame vs Navy game in August, which Corry calls “one of the most lucrative tourism events in recent Irish history”. Almost 40,000 people travelled from the US for the game, generating a staggering €150 million in tourism revenue.

“This was an example where the multipliers were not one bit crude. Groups of these wealthy American college graduates had no issue in taking over a Michelin-starred restaurant and asking it to close for the night so they could dine there,” says Corry.

Golf and rugby supporters also tend to be bigger spenders than soccer fans. With the Euros, the demographic of the fans will make a difference and it could hinge on what matches we are chosen to host, Corry adds.

He believes the greatest benefits for Ireland in co-hosting the tournament will result from an inevitable surge in its “soft power”.

“Not a lot of people go to see the Tour de France every year but for one month on every television in the world you have got the most beautiful scenery being poured out for hour after hour,” he says. “That sort of thing could be of significant benefit for Irish tourism. Also, people like to go back to a city they have visited for a sporting event – I have done it myself on many occasions.”

Overall, hosting a big international sporting event will be good for Dublin, Corry suggests.

The Euros won’t come anywhere near those crude multipliers in terms of the money it earns but the precedent it sets will be key

—  Eoghan Corry

“People will be cheered up by the fact that we are hosting a major sporting event,” he says. “We don’t host enough of them – we are brutal for doing that and I think we need to be doing more of it.

“The Euros won’t come anywhere near those crude multipliers in terms of the money it earns but the precedent it sets will be key and it will show Ireland can play ball at a high level when it comes to hosting these events. The more we host, the better we will get at them.”

And regardless of the impact the tournament ultimately has on tourism in 2028, the positive benefits on Irish soccer will be felt for many years after, says O’Keeffe.

“There is no doubt that the anticipation for Euro 2028 will dominate the mood of the nation over the coming years but ultimately it will be judged on the legacy it leaves on football in Ireland,” she adds.

“Some €6.2 million has been pledged to legacy projects by the FAI and Irish Government and so you would certainly expect that the benefits will be felt from grassroots right up to the League of Ireland.”