Good afternoon,
The presidential election campaign has entered the home straight ahead of Friday’s vote, with exchanges between the candidates sharpening over the weekend.
- You can read this morning’s lead story here
- And our up-to-the-minute coverage here
Last week’s Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll showed that Catherine Connolly – at least at the time the poll sampling was done on Monday and Tuesday – had a huge 18-point lead among all voters, larger again if you count only those who will cast a valid vote.
Can Heather Humphreys overturn that by Friday? It would take an earthquake. But earthquakes have happened before in presidential elections and there will be at least the opportunity for some seismic activity tomorrow night when the candidates face off in the final television debate of the campaign on RTÉ’s Prime Time.
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This really will be the last chance saloon for Humphreys – she has to change the entire trajectory of the campaign’s narrative.
In the wake of the poll’s publication on Thursday, the Fine Gael approach hardened over the weekend, culminating in the release of an attack ad online which targeted Connolly’s work for banks in home repossession cases during the financial crash when she was a barrister.
Connolly hit back, describing the Fine Gael attack as “a new low”; statements from Connolly supporters have followed this morning. Labour leader Ivana Bacik called it “a new level of ‘nasty’ in this presidential campaign.
“It also represents a craven and dangerous attack on a fundamental principle of the rule of law in our democratic system.”
The Soc Dems called on Minister for Justice Jim O’Callaghan to denounce the Fine Gael attack.
Perhaps more impactfully, law lecturer and barrister James McDermott spoke to RTÉ Radio’s Morning Ireland, insisting that the “cab-rank” rule – under which barristers should take whatever work is offered to them – is a fundamental tenet of the independent Bar which is intended to facilitate access to legal representation, and therefore justice.
This is all likely to be fine from Fine Gael’s point of view, driving attention to the fact that Connolly (whatever the niceties of Bar Council rules) was employed by banks seeking to evict people.
Connolly is certainly protected by the Bar’s rules. But those rules leave enough space for people to avoid doing cases if they really don’t want to – either by pleading they are too busy, or by pleading there are “special circumstances” which prevent them from giving of their best to the client. If Connolly really wanted to avoid the work, she probably could have.
Fine Gael also claims that Connolly – despite many times condemning evictions by the banks in the Dáil – never declared her previous work for them.
As it happens, The Irish Times asked the Connolly campaign about this two weeks ago. They never responded. Again, Connolly wasn’t obliged to declare her past work. But it might have made for a more complete picture.
Humphreys can be expected to ask Connolly directly about all this and other matters – Syria, her ex-Éirigí staff, her views on the EU – at the campaign’s last great set-piece tomorrow night, when the two candidates face off at the Prime Time presidential debate.
Connolly has so far been able to bat back any attack, with a mixture of innate coolness and clever media techniques. If campaigns are a test of the temperament of candidates, Connolly has passed with flying colours.
Tomorrow night will be the last chance for the Fine Gael candidate to effect the sort of sea-change in the campaign that she needs. But Humphreys’s own campaign has also failed to really spark.
Our poll showed that she was attracting the support of only 70 per cent of FG voters (counting those who intended to vote). She needs more than that, and more than the 50 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters she was getting when measured last week.
Then she needs her voters to turn out, and lots of Connolly’s to stay at home. It’s not completely impossible, but it’s a helluva long shot.
