“Multinationals are looking at how they manage Trump for the next two years,” says an experienced investment adviser.
“Between now and the US midterm elections is what really matters – after that everyone will move on to whoever comes next”.
There seem to be two broad approaches being taken by US companies with operations in Ireland.
The first is to stay off Donald Trump’s radar and hunker down until 2027. The second, the preferred route of several tech companies, is to go on the offensive.
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A former member of Trump’s organisation says the incoming president is “getting ready to hit the ground running”.
Matt Mowers served at the State Department under Trump and was part of his transition team in 2016.
“We saw the impact last time he was in office, following the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, where billions of dollars were repatriated to the United States,” says Mowers.
“Extending and possibly expanding the tax cuts of 2017 will have the same effect”.
The tech sector has already been offering what appear to be sops to the new US president.
Changes at Meta – the parent company of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp – have come quickly.
The founder and chief executive of the mixed martial arts franchise the Ultimate Fighting Championship, Dana White, was appointed to Meta’s board. White is a close ally of Trump, and her appointment appears to be a clear effort to win favour.
Facebook insiders note such a move would have led to outrage among a largely liberal, Democrat-leaning workforce several years ago, but recent job insecurity in the sector has made workers more compliant.
“That would have required a ‘town-hall’ meeting to appease them – but not any more,’’ observes one.
[ Meta goes Maga - why Zuckerberg chose TrumpOpens in new window ]
Days before White’s appointment, the company’s head of global affairs, Nick Clegg, announced he was off to “new adventures”.
Clegg, former leader of the centrist Liberal Democrats in England, will be replaced by someone much closer to the Trump way of thinking – former Republican White House deputy chief of staff Joel Kaplan.
Alongside the changes at the top of the organisation came changes to how Facebook and Instagram will operate.
Founder Mark Zuckerberg told users its third-party fact-checking operation would cease – to be replaced with the same kind of “community notes” feature adopted at X (formerly Twitter) following its purchase by Elon Musk.
Tech watchdogs in the US have warned it could lead to a surge in disinformation on Meta platforms.
Gareth Lambe headed up Meta’s Irish operation during its period of rapid growth; headcount in Dublin growing from 300 to 3,000 under his tenure.
He has watched as multinationals, like his former employer, have adjusted policies over the past few weeks.
“It is not always the case that company leaders are betraying their values in order to cosy up to Trump – but that he is enabling them to do things they always wanted to do,” he says.
Now the chief executive of healthcare software business Medihive, Lambe says Trump’s transactional style means lobbyists for the Irish-based tech firms will have brought something to the table.
“The current set-ups and operations that are serving Europe and European markets are necessary in Ireland and they can’t simply be shifted to the US. You can’t do that from Tennessee.
“But, definitely any new teams, operations and offices that don’t serve Europe – Trump will expect that they are located in the US”.
The former country manager of Amazon Web Service’s Irish division, Michael Beary, believes by bowing down to Trump some tech companies risk damaging critical relationships elsewhere.
“Broadly speaking these big companies take a long view,” says Beary.
“They understand they have customers in more jurisdictions than in the US. They know that while they have to be mindful of the new expectations regarding prioritising investments at home, that they can’t afford to alienate customers and governments in other jurisdictions around the world.
“Meta made a decision to assertively align to what they believe are the expectations of the incoming administration.
“Time will tell if they have overdone it.
“It’s notable that other governments and their regulators – including in Australia and here in Ireland – have quickly raised concerns with their plan to abandon active content moderation”.
Zuckerberg and Musk have been on a collision course with European and Irish regulators for a number of years. The pivot by Meta opens the way for further rancour.
Separately, Beary also believes Trump should understand Ireland is a necessary beachhead for US firms looking to sell into European markets.
“I think Ireland is in a good position, relatively speaking.
“While the high watermark of globalisation may have passed – we are now in an era of ‘friend shoring’ – better to have assets in jurisdictions that are friendly to the US.
“I’m hopeful when the pressure comes on, it will be more focused on jurisdictions that are antithetical to the US. That’s not Ireland.”
The efforts by the pharma sector to reach an understanding with Trump have intensified as well over the past week.
On Tuesday, Pfizer executives, including its boss Albert Bourla, travelled to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida for a planning meeting.
Days earlier it had been reported the pharma giant – along with the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA) – were among those who had contributed to Trump’s €150 million inauguration fund.
Pfizer employs about 5,000 people across Dublin, Cork and Kildare – and makes a hefty contribution to Ireland’s export numbers.
In December 2023, IDA Ireland presented the Pfizer chief executive with a Special Recognition Award from the State.
The event, attended by hundreds of people at the National Concert Hall in Dublin, heard Mr Bourla say his company’s commitment to Ireland remained “steadfast”.
“The fact that Bourla reaffirmed his commitment to Ireland is encouraging,” says former Pfizer veteran John LaMattina.
“In contrast to this, Pfizer had a number of manufacturing plants at one point in Puerto Rico, but many of these closed”.
But LaMattina, who was head of research and development at the company for 30 years, believes Trump will exact a price in exchange for leaving its current Irish operation intact.
“The Trump presidency is a wild card. I’m not sure that he’ll pressure companies to close existing foreign sites and move these to the USA. He might, however, urge companies to avoid growing foreign sites and concentrate new manufacturing in the USA. We’ll see”.
Another recipient of an Irish special recognition, Google, this past week revealed it too had donated $1 million to Trump’s inauguration fund – and that it would stream the ceremony live on YouTube.
Microsoft and Apple CEO Tim Cook have matched the contribution.
Google and Apple are both facing antitrust cases in the US and are awaiting the next moves from the Department of Justice.
While many within the Irish inward investment ecosystem hope to ride out the next two years, ex-Trump man Mowers believes any missteps will see things move quickly against Ireland.
“EU Leaders, and those in Ireland, are going to have to keep up with the pro-business environment Trump creates or these companies are going to quickly pull back and invest back into the US”.
Beary says the shift in US attitudes towards trade and foreign relations is more fundamental than just Trump.
“Biden didn’t roll back everything Trump had done in his first term when it came to economic policies towards China – he kept many of the tariffs and restrictions in place – and signed the bill to force a sale or closure of TikTok.
“Ireland has to take account that the US body politic has moved – economic sovereignty efforts are now bipartisan and the second Trump administration is simply the next wave of that.”
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