Amid the swirl of speculation about the date of the next general election, for some parties another poll is only three weeks away.
The all-Ireland parties, to be precise; in the North, voters are facing a UK general election on July 4th – which means that Sinn Féin, still reeling from the shock of a bad day at the local and European elections on Friday, must regroup and fight another election campaign while figuring out what went wrong in the last one.
This means sounding confident – presumably the motivation behind Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald’s remark to the media on Tuesday that the party was “going to perform really well in the Westminster elections.
“I think we’re nailed on for some gains,” she said.
Let’s unpick that for a moment. In a Westminster election Northern Ireland chooses 18 MPs, one for each constituency, all chosen by the first-past-the-post system.
Sinn Féin currently has seven MPs – one behind the DUP on eight – and it’s reasonable, indeed likely, that it will retain all seven.
If there is a doubt anywhere, it is over Fermanagh South Tyrone, which last time was won by Michelle Gildernew – currently awaiting her fate in Midlands-North-West – by 57 votes. If the replacement candidate loses, then questions will be asked about the wisdom of moving her across the Border.
The only other constituency where Sinn Féin is realistically in the hunt is Foyle, but here the incumbent, the SDLP leader Colum Eastwood, is sitting on a majority of more than 17,000 and is expected to hold his seat.
Beyond Foyle, it is not clear where these “gains” might come from; of the seats that may change hands, the battle is between unionism and Alliance, not the DUP and Sinn Féin.
The difference between success and failure is often one of narrative. McDonald’s comment aside, the feeling within the party is that to retain its current seven would be a solid election result for Sinn Féin, particularly if – as could well happen – the DUP lose one or possibly more seats, thus allowing Sinn Féin to draw level or even overtake them.
This in turn would reinforce another narrative, that of the inevitably of Sinn Féin’s onward march from the largest party at Assembly and council level to, it hopes, the “hat-trick” of Westminster – all the more important given the damage done by Friday’s results to another such narrative, that of its inexorable rise to the party of Government in the South.
Sinn Féin needs a strong showing in the North to demonstrate the southern results were an anomaly rather than part of a pattern. Keeping its seven MPs would prove the party is an essentially steady ship, which remains on course.
While no party can afford complacency, there is no reason to suggest things are otherwise. At the risk of stating the obvious, much is different in the North – not least the electoral system, voting patterns and the sociopolitical context – and in many constituencies Sinn Féin has a large majority that will not be overturned.
The packed schedule will make personnel management a challenge. Its activists in Tyrone, for example, have just put in a shift canvassing in Donegal; now the Southerners must return the favour and start knocking doors enthusiastically in the North, then potentially face an autumn election in the South.
Of the lessons of Friday’s election for Sinn Féin, one surely was the danger of over-ambition. All the more reason, therefore, not to over-promise “nailed-on ... gains” in the North.
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