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Political mood sours as unloved referendum campaign draws to a close

Polls open on Friday but many voters still appear confused by the Family and Care amendments

National Women’s Council director Orla O'Connor canvassing outside Connolly Station, Dublin, in advance of Friday's Family and Care referendums. Photograph: Dara Mac Dónaill

Jack Horgan-Jones's face
Jack Horgan-Jones
Thu Mar 7 2024 - 07:42

Less than 24 hours from now, the polls will open for the Family and Care referendums. It would be safe to say that the Government is not awash with confidence going into polling day after a stuttering, awkward campaign that has failed to capture the public imagination.

On the eve of the vote, polling suggests that large swathes of the electorate have not dialled in, have not noticed the campaign, and as recently as last weekend, support for both Yes and No was dropping as ‘don’t know’ rose, suggesting large numbers of people are confused by the whole thing. In some ways, who could blame them? The questions being asked of them are difficult to concisely express or grasp, the consequences of Yes and No votes contested and abstract. Civil society and interest groups have not spoken with one voice – some progressive-leaning bodies breaking for No, professional groups having nasty spats after calling for Yes. Combined with a strong chance of a low turnout, the referendums are hard to predict after an unloved campaign.

So, it’s not surprising, as Jennifer Bray reports this morning, that the mood among Government TDs has soured somewhat, with skepticism about the result on the march in Leinster House on Wednesday.

On the contrary, there seems to be more of a pep in the step of the No side, which despite being vastly outnumbered in a parliamentary sense, has hung tough over the weeks of the campaign.

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Speaking from a distance (Bucharest), the Taoiseach sought to rally the troops, saying, in our front page lead, a No vote would be a “setback for the country”.

Come what may, The Irish Times politics team will be on the ground over the weekend as the votes are counted. Stay tuned.

Best reads

Mark Hennessy was with the SDLP talking about their vision for a path to unity.

On the opinion pages, Newton Emerson writes about Micheál Martin’s shrewd approach to the same issue.

Naomi O’Leary on civil servants, protest and Gaza.

Keith Duggan on Nikki Haley’s exit from the GOP primary race.

Playbook

The Taoiseach is continuing his trip to Bucharest for a meeting of the European Peoples’ Party, while Minister for Finance Michael McGrath is in London for a three-day trip – today he is hobnobbing with finance companies and tomorrow he meets the Bank of England governor and lord mayor of the City of London.

In the Dáil, Micheál Martin takes oral questions at 9am, followed by Eamon Ryan at 10.30am. At midday, it’s Leaders’ Questions, followed by Questions on Policy or Legislation. Government business in the afternoon is given over to statements on the Nature Restoration Law, followed by topical issues.

The full schedule

The Seanad kicks off at 9.30am, with the European Arrest Warrant (Amendment Bill) and legislation on safe access zones working its way through the upper house before it adjourns at 2pm.

The full schedule

The Housing Committee continues its work on the planning and development bill with Darragh O’Brien in the morning, and there’s an update for the Committee on the implementation of the Good Friday Agreement on the work of the Shared Island Unit.

The full schedule

Other stuff to watch: President Michael D Higgins is due back in the Áras from hospital today. Eamon Ryan and Michael O’Leary are having a meeting after trading verbal barrages recently (oh to be a low-cost fly on that wall).

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