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Budget to dominate as Dáil returns with a few notable absentees

Much chatter about Coalition leaders’ decision to biff off to New York for the first week as spectre of election looms

Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe and Minister for Finance Michael McGrath deliver the Government's Summer Economic Statement at Government Buildings in Dublin in July. Photograph: Niall Carson/PA Wire

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Pat Leahy
Wed Sep 20 2023 - 07:59

TDs are set to return to Leinster House this afternoon when the Dáil reassembles after a 10-week summer break.

But there will be a few notable absentees – all three leaders of the Coalition parties are in New York for the week at the United Nations. If you think it odd that that the Government’s three leaders have biffed off for the first week back after the Dáil has been in recess for 10 weeks, you would not be alone: there’s lots of chatter around Government circles about it. It does not exactly convey that they’re hitting the ground running for the new political term, is the general sentiment. There’s no Cabinet this week either. Simon Coveney is in the hotseat for Leaders’ Questions today; Darragh O’Brien tomorrow.

As our story today suggests, the coming weeks will be dominated by the budget, due to be delivered by Minister for Finance Michael McGrath and Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe on October 10th. Yesterday, both men sought to dampen expectations of a budget day bonanza, with McGrath warning that the once-off giveaways will not be as extensive as last year, and Donohoe sounding a similar note of caution.

In both cases, as senior sources readily confirmed, the intended recipient of the messages was not so much the public, but their fellow members of the Cabinet, with whom budget wrangling is already under way. Next week sees the beginning of the budget bilateral meetings, where Donohoe and his senior officials will meet with the line Ministers and their teams to agree settlements for the coming year. They will be scratchy enough; insiders predict there’ll be skin and hair flyin’ as Ministers demand that Donohoe and McGrath part with their plenty, while the two budget bros insist on sticking to their agreed spending ceilings.

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When the dust settles after a busy few weeks and a frantic last one, a budget will be presented on October 10th; it always is. The alternative, after all, is a collapse of the Government. But will it be a political success? That is the question on the lips of everyone in Leinster House.

The next election

If the coming weeks will be all about the budget, in a larger sense the political term – and all terms for the remainder of this Dáil – will be overshadowed by spectre of the next general election. Everything that politicians do from here on in will be with one eye (at least) on the election.

That will inevitably pose internal difficulties within the Government, whose two main parties must figure out how to be Coalition partners and, simultaneously, electoral rivals. Fianna Fáilers were outraged when Leo Varadkar appeared to undercut the Minister for Agriculture Charlie McConalogue with a suggestion that the European Commission might consider softening its position on the nitrates directive which has so enraged farmers. They saw an effort to discredit McConalogue and Fianna Fáil in general among farmers, and while Fine Gaelers pleaded innocence (not very convincingly), the fact is that the two parties will be competing for some of the same votes.

For Sinn Féin, the challenge between now and the election is to close the deal with all those new supporters it has attracted in the past three years. It will need to translate the broad appeal of its offer of “change” to the rather more humdrum expression of implementable policies. It will need to defend itself against inevitable Coalition charges that it would endanger Ireland’s economic strength, treading a fine line between promising to change the things people don’t like, while maintaining the things they do. That is surely not impossible, but it is a tricky business. Nonetheless, the party approaches it from a position of unprecedented strength.

The smaller parties, meanwhile, must fight for their share of the limelight, the Greens seeking to demonstrate their continuing relevance and purpose in power, the smaller left-wing parties wondering if they can avoid being steamrollered by Sinn Féin. It will be helter-skelter stuff, for sure. The Dáil gong goes just before 2pm today.

Best reads

In our lead story, Paul Cullen reports that the controversy over children’s surgery at Temple Street may be turning into a much wider scandal.

Miriam Lord’s back and went to the ploughing championships in Co Laois.

Michael McDowell on Lenin and the Irish “human rights” activists.

Heather Humphreys will propose a new model for disability payments today.

Micheál Martin defends the UN against, er, Michael D.

Playbook

The action continues at the Ploughing Championships in Co Laois. Let’s hope the weather improves there.

Leaders’ Questions at 2pm in the Dáil, followed by the order of business and the second stage debate on the legislation setting up an elected mayor of Limerick. Sinn Féin has a motion on mortgage interest relief.

The Seanad isn’t back until next week, but there’s plenty of action at the committees. There’ll be lots of interest in the Transport Committee where representatives from the Applus Car Testing Service, who perform the NCT, and the Road Safety Authority are in.

The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council are in at the Budgetary Oversight Committee where their less than enthusiastic views about the forthcoming giveaway budget are likely to be probed.

Minister for Equality and Children Roderic O’Gorman and Caoilfhionn Gallagher, the special rapporteur on child protection, will talk about child protection issues at the committee on children.

The full list of committee hearings is here.