Inside Politics: Let the budget games begin

Good morning,

The three Coalition leaders were locked into late talks last night in a bid to agree how much cash they are ready to spend in Budget 2024.

Talk of super-surpluses and extra billions means many Government TDs think it would look miserly not to spend the spoils on disaffected voters, especially with a general election coming rapidly into view.

Barring a late disaster, the Summer Economic Statement looks set to be approved by Cabinet and published today. In the lead-up backbenchers have been merrily lobbing demands at Ministers for a variety of punter friendly measures, such as a €20 welfare increase and €1,000 tax cuts.

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But standing in the sensible corner are ‘prudent’ Paschal Donohoe and ‘moderate’ Michael McGrath, and it looks as though they have successfully tempered some of the more eye-catching demands.

There will still be plenty to go around judging from a report this morning in The Irish Times. As Pat Leahy writes, a major package of one-off spending measures is likely to be included, in a repeat of last year’s giveaway formula.

[ Budget 2023 main points: Details of the tax, rent, childcare and cost-of-living measures ]

Multiple sources have said that the statement will likely take “a cautious approach” because of fears around inflation. What does this mean for Fine Gael’s repeated promises to deliver significant tax breaks for the so-called squeezed middle?

If Paschal Donohoe’s words are anything to go by, it looks like this year’s tax package will be somewhat similar to last year’s, prioritising indexation rather than a bumper tax cutting spree.

Asked if he was less in favour of the kind of bonanza tax measures called for by colleagues, such as €1,000 in tax cuts, Mr Donohoe said he believed the Coalition should follow through on Programme for Government promises to index the tax code. “I believe we should implement that.”

“You can do that at a level that does not create an inflation risk. I am confident we will get the balance right”.

All told, Leahy reports the likely outcome will be a spending package worth upwards of €6 billion, including more than €1 billion in tax measures. The tax measures will include an adjustment of the bands and thresholds which will reduce the amount of tax people would otherwise have paid.

The spending hikes would be accompanied by a repeat of at least some of last year’s one-off measures, which included bonus welfare, child benefit and cost-of-living payments that amounted to a further €4 billion. Such an approach would pose less of an inflationary threat, and still give the Government plenty to boast about as it eyes up the local elections next year.

Keep an eye on www.irishtimes.com today for all the latest news on the Summer Economic Statement.

Where to for Tubridy?

There’s another closely guarded item on the Cabinet agenda this morning: the terms of reference setting out the scale of the Government-mandated review of governance and finance at RTÉ.

It is widely expected that these finalised terms will go before Ministers this morning, but the memo may be brought under the arm of Minister for Arts and Media Catherine Martin, meaning it will not have been widely circulated in Government Buildings.

As we report, Ministers have been clear that they want to see all financial records belonging to RTÉ going back years. Cabinet will likely give powers to an external reviewer to examine those records.

It has been a cataclysmic fortnight for RTÉ since it emerged that about €345,000 in hidden payments made to Ryan Tubridy were not declared in public statements.

The next question on everyone’s lips is: will Ryan Tubridy appear at the Public Accounts Committee?

This week, probably on Thursday, members of the committee will formally agree to invite Tubridy and former director general Dee Forbes to a hearing, along with four others including Tubridy’s agent Noel Kelly. If they spurn the invite, the PAC will likely seek to compel them to appear.

What happens if they still do not appear?

Under the law, failure to comply with an order of the committee may amount to an offence. Taking a close look at the law underpinning a committee’s powers to compel, it clearly says that those guilty of an offence could be liable to a fine of up to €500,000 or imprisonment for up to six months, or both.

It’s an extraordinary situation, and means this story will dominate headlines for weeks to come.

As an aside, here is Fintan O’Toole’s latest take on Ryan Tubridy and Noel Kelly.

[ Noel Kelly is not Ryan Tubridy’s Father Confessor. He’s his attack dog ]

Elsewhere at Cabinet

There are a few other interesting memos up at Cabinet.

Memos include a plan to give Paschal Donohoe back his Sipo powers; an update on a drop in the number of international protection applications from so-called “safe countries”; a plan to pause deep sea mining and an update on Government attempts to block the bulk buying of homes by institutional investors and others.

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Playbook

Dáil Éireann

Dáil proceedings will kick off with Leaders’ Questions at 2pm, followed by the Order of Business.

There will be motions without debate after 3pm, such as the motion to appoint Jane Mulcahy to the Policing Authority.

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar will take questions just after 3pm, and then it’s on to the main set piece of the day: statements on the controversy engulfing RTÉ, scheduled for 3.50pm.

After this, at 7.20pm, Sinn Fein are pencilled in for Private Members’ Business with a motion in relation to the A5 route upgrade.

At 9.20pm, Minister for Children and Equality Roderic O’Gorman will take questions on his brief, and this will be followed by Topical Issues at 10.50pm before the Dáil adjourns.

Read the full Dáil schedule will all the motions.

Seanad

There are a few Bills up in the Seanad today for debate, including the Judicial Appointments Commission Bill 2022, which will put judicial appointments on a more formal footing, at 5.45pm.

The Representative Actions for the Protection of the Collective Interests of Consumers Bill 2023 is also scheduled, for 5.45pm. The Bill will allow consumers to opt into a collective action and seek redress as a result of a trader’s breach of their rights.

Then at 6.15pm, the Agricultural and Food Supply Chain Bill 2022 is up. This is a Bill to establish an Office for Fairness and Transparency in the Agri-Food sector.

Here is a more detailed Seanad schedule.

Committees

There’s plenty happening in the committee rooms today.

At 10.30am , the Joint Committee on Assisted Dying will hold another hearing to discuss legal protections and sanctions in relation to assisted dying.

At 12pm, the Committee of Public Accounts will launch a report on the financial statements for the National Transport Authority and Transport Infrastructure Ireland.

At 3pm, the Select Committee on Housing, Local Government and Heritage will discuss the Historic and Archaeological Heritage Bill 2023.

The Committee schedule can be found here.