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Timing upcoming referendums will be almost as difficult for Coalition as winning them

Inside Politics: Planned gender equality votes risk being shot through with other issues given charged debate in area

Minister for Children Roderic O'Gorman, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Minister for Education Norma Foley at yesterday's announcement of the planned gender equality referendum. Photograph: Nick Bradshaw

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Jack Horgan-Jones
Thu Mar 9 2023 - 07:44

Good morning,

Constitutional change in Ireland at the moment is a bit like bankruptcy – it comes very slowly, and then all at once.

There hasn’t been a referendum on changing the Constitution since 2019, when voters were asked to change the provisions regulating waiting periods around divorce.

That vote was, ultimately, a bit of constitutional upkeep. Unlike the seismic change of the Repeal and equal marriage referendums, it didn’t live long in the memory.

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As Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said on Wednesday, thanks to a general election, Covid-19, the cost of living crisis etc, the Government has fallen behind on its constitutional homework. Catching up presents a particular set of political challenges.

Some of the votes are very much in the realm of 2019: a referendum to join the patent court, for example, would try the patience of even the most dedicated political anorak. However, there are tricky votes coming down the track. In some cases, timing them will be almost as difficult as winning them.

The Government announced yesterday that it might hold not one, but three, votes on gender equality. At first glance, much of this is about removing antiquated notions from the Constitution about a woman’s place in the home. However, it is overlaid with complex issues about constitutional recognition of the role of carers – and in the current age of charged debate about gender politics, it runs the risk of being shot through with other issues.

Water and housing constitute two of the most divisive issues recent governments have had to confront. The water charges protests convulsed the nation in 2014-2015, resulting in a damaging and embarrassing climbdown for the government of the day and galvanising a mood for change in the electorate that ultimately contributed to the tide dramatically going out for the Fine Gael/Labour coalition in 2016.

Establishing the parameters of a referendum on housing, as we report today, is proving very tricky. Establishing constitutional rights on a politically totemic issue will require skilful manouvering.

The Government has a bit of space on this – nothing the Taoiseach said on Wednesday suggests he necessarily wants to shoehorn a housing referendum into this November’s referendums (up to three on gender equality, he says). But it’s not infinite, and neither are electoral windows. Next year will see local and European elections, and possibly a general election; the following year, a presidential election. Holding a vote on housing or water issues around these dates (not to mention the prospect of a referendum extending the franchise for a presidential vote) could see any or all of them, or the elections themselves, supercharged by the issues of the day, not to mention the risk of depressed voter turnout, the electorate’s inclination to give the Government a kicking, or simply referendum fatigue.

Best reads

Miriam Lord on the clumsy International Womens’ Day tributes that echoed down the Leinster House corridors yesterday.

Harry McGee has the details of the Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil parliamentary party meetings last night.

London Correspondent Mark Paul on the leadership battle in the Scottish National Party.

Finn McRedmond on Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak and the soul of the Conservative party.

The controversy over the decision to end the eviction ban rumbles on, with a Dáil vote now in the offing, as Cormac McQuinn et al report on our front page in print. We also have analysis of whether the mitigation measures will work and where it leaves tenants.

The President’s contribution on sexuality in schools will doubtless raise eyebrows.

On yesterday’s Inside Politics podcast, Hugh Linehan and Jennifer Bray spoke to Richard Boyd Barrett about People Before Profit’s political agenda.

Playbook

Norma Foley launches the new primary curriculum framework at 10.30am.

Over in the Dáil, Charlie McConalogue and Darragh O’Brien are taking oral questions in the house back to back from 9am.

Then it’s Leaders’ Questions at noon, there’s topical issues in the afternoon, before Private Members’ time on a Bill governing the inspection of individual education plans for children with special needs.

The Dáil adjourns for the week after 6pm – and then won’t sit again next week, with Ministers off on their St Patrick’s Day duties.

One to watch: we hear there will also be a meeting of the National Directorate for Fire and Emergency Management on the cold weather we’re expecting.

For the animal lovers, the Department of Defence will be parading the Civil Defence K9 unit at 10am – no word on Ministers, though.

The Seanad will debate legislation on emergency electricity generation in the morning before adjourning at the very reasonable time of 2pm.

Over at the committees, the Public Accounts Committee will hear from the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI), covering the national retrofit scheme and electric vehicle infrastructure.

The agriculture committee will launch a report on solar energy at 9.30am. At the same time, the Joint Comittee on Disability Matters will hear about self-advocacy and women with disabilities.

Pre-legislative scrutiny of the planning Bill continues at the housing committee.

Leo Varadkar is delivering revised estimates for public services in the Taoiseach’s department at the Finance Committee.

Lord Reg Empey is at the Joint Committee on the implementation of the Good Friday Agreement.

The full schedule can be found here.