INSIDE POLITICS:A more robust defence by Government of its record and Opposition jitters have made politics more interesting
THERE HAS been a small but noticeable shift in the political wind over the past few weeks. Fianna Fáil is putting up a more trenchant defence of its record in government and has adopted a clear strategy of pouring scorn on the response of the Opposition parties to the continuing financial and economic crisis.
Since delivering his mammoth 7,600-word defence of his record at an event in Dublin City University last month, Brian Cowen has taken a higher public profile and, both inside and outside the Dáil, has argued his case with more coherence and consistency than he had been doing since he took over the Taoiseach’s office two years ago.
For instance, in response to Eamon Gilmore’s attempt to needle him in the Dáil last Wednesday about the future of the politically toxic Anglo Irish Bank, the Taoiseach initially replied with a trademark level of numbing detail but followed it with a strong attack on Labour’s opposition to the whole bank guarantee scheme going back to September 30th, 2008.
It was a glimpse of the Cowen who turned the tide at a crucial stage of the last election but who has not been much in evidence since he became Taoiseach. One of the things that made Fianna Fáil TDs so despondent over the past year or so was Cowen’s inconsistency and frequent invisibility. The occasional strong performances were not followed up. Instead the Taoiseach reverted to a default mode of generally glum and uninspiring Dáil responses and the same approach was evident in his occasional public appearances.
He has upped his game in recent weeks responding strongly to Opposition attacks with coherence rather than disdain. His backbenchers are hoping he will keep up the performance until the Dáil summer break in a month’s time.
The controversy over the expenses of two Fianna Fáil senators, Ivor Callely and then Larry Butler, will have done nothing to improve Fianna Fáil’s standing with the public but Cowen’s swift response may have minimised the potential damage.
Cowen’s recent defence of his Government’s record combined with attacks on the credibility of the Opposition has been reflected in the line taken by Ministers like Batt O’Keeffe and Billy Kelleher who have taken to issuing rebuttals of claims made by the other side.
Backbenchers like Niall Collins, Michael McGrath and Thomas Byrne have also waded in with attacks on Fine Gael and Labour.
The coalition has also tried to focus public attention on the generally favourable international commentary on its approach to the economic crisis. The statements of institutions like the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission and positive commentary in newspapers like the Financial Timesand the Wall Street Journalhave been cited in support of its approach.
That has infuriated the Opposition parties who have started to attack media commentators as well as the coalition. That anger indicates a degree of nervousness that after two years of record unpopularity the Government’s standing may have bottomed out and the next election might not be the foregone conclusion everybody had assumed.
The more robust defence being put up by the Government and the Opposition jitters have caused some people in Leinster House to wonder if an autumn election might be on the cards.
While conventional wisdom still holds that the coalition will try and stick it out for another two years, and that is certainly what most Fianna Fáil backbenchers want, some senior figures in the party believe there is a strong case to be made for going sooner rather than later.
“If I was Brian Cowen I wouldn’t wait around until the coalition is undermined by slow degrees. I’d go to the country on my own terms in October,” said one former minister. He expects that Fianna Fáil would lose an election this year but felt that it would be far worse if the Government is pulled down next year.
There are two strong arguments in favour of an autumn election. One is that the three byelections cannot be postponed indefinitely and the loss of all three would set in motion a process that would see the coalition’s majority eaten away by degrees.
Linked to that is the inevitability of another swingeing budget in December. That will put renewed strain on the stability of the coalition and, even if the two parties do agree on a further set of austerity measures, the budget will inevitably lead to even greater unpopularity as the public digests more spending cuts and tax increases.
Since the severity of the economic and banking crisis became evident some senior people in Fianna Fáil have resigned themselves to losing the next election but they have been pondering how to get from government to opposition in reasonable shape to fight another day.
The question is whether Fianna Fáil can manage a Dunkirk-style retreat in good order or go down to a landslide defeat that would leave the party facing opposition for more than one Dáil term.
There is a belief in Fianna Fail that Fine Gael and Labour would not have the stomach to do what is required in government and that the alternative coalition would prove to be short-lived. In this scenario the public would quickly turn back to a party that, despite its role in the creation of the crisis, had shown a capacity to take the tough decisions.
That could be a dangerous assumption, of course. The alternative scenario is that Fine Gael and Labour with a strong majority in the Dáil might do what Charles Haughey did in 1987 and surprise everybody with their toughness and resolve. That would leave Fianna Fáil with a quandary of whether it should opt for a return to traditional adversarial politics or try a variant of Alan Dukes’s Tallaght strategy.
For the present this is all academic and the coalition should have no problem coasting to the summer break in a month’s time. Politics will get really interesting, though, when the Dáil resumes in October.