Although the precise composition of the 29th Dáil is still uncertain, the electorate has given an increased mandate to the parties of the outgoing Coalition Government.
Lacking an overall majority, Fianna Fáil will have to decide within the next few days whether it will attempt to form a minority government, with support from Independent TDs, or embark on negotiations aimed at agreeing a renewed programme for government with the Progressive Democrats.
The Progressive Democrats held their first parliamentary party meeting since the general election at Leinster House yesterday and considered their options: retiring to the opposition benches or entering a new coalition arrangement. Both courses of action offered opportunities. With Fine Gael in disarray and seeking political direction, the Progressive Democrats would be in a position to make further advances at its expense in opposition, perhaps even to the extent of launching a reverse take-over bid. On the other hand, the party had fought the election and doubled the number of its Dáil seats on the understanding that it would act as Fianna Fáil's "minder" in government.
The outcome of the discussion was something of a foregone conclusion, given the political imperative to acquire control of the levers of power in order to implement party policy. TDs and Senators asked Ms Harney to contact the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and initiate negotiations for a coalition government. The request was in keeping with the Tánaiste's own inclination as she has repeatedly spoken of her preference for a continuation of the outgoing coalition. The Taoiseach expressed a similar sentiment. But Mr Ahern added the warning that a putative partner should not "set the bar too high" in negotiations. And he alluded to the possibility of forming a minority government should demands be excessive.
The verbal skirmishing between the parties has served to establish the framework for negotiations in the public mind. But it has been a phoney war, designed to clear any astringency that arose between the parties during the election campaign. From last Sunday, when it became clear that Fianna Fáil would fall short of an overall majority, the coalition option moved centre stage. After all, that was the outcome the electorate favoured and both Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats had returned with increased Dáil representation. All that remained to be done was to agree the terms.
Formal negotiations are likely to begin next week and, given the considerable overlap that has developed in the policies of the two parties after five years in government, they are unlikely to be protracted. Sharing the spoils of government may generate the greatest friction as, on a strictly proportionate basis, the Progressive Democrats would be entitled to 1.5 places in Cabinet and they are likely to demand two senior ministries. In the interests of a stable government, however, it is a price Mr Ahern is expected to pay.