Thinking Anew:THE SLOE-BERRIES are large and plentiful this year. My elders tell me that that portends a harsher winter than usual. Maybe they are right and maybe they will be wrong – predicting the future is never infallible, yet those who attempt it have an irresistible charm about them.
Years of observing hedgerows, the behaviour of birds and the levels of streams create a laboratory of the earth, a laboratory that is as scientific as any laboratory in a clinical or industrial setting. People who are close to the land observe, catalogue, record and remember just as any other observational scientist does. The only difference between them is the recognition of their knowledge and insight. If an expert tells us something we are inclined to agree with it – but really, shepherds should tend their flocks and leave the weather forecast to the meteorologists! Predicting the future is purely a matter of chance. Normally there are only two possible outcomes, so a 50-50 situation is quite usual; you say it will rain and either it will and you are correct, or it won’t and you are wrong. The fact that the future doesn’t exist and ceases to exist as it happens poses a few problems for the philosophers. Can anybody know something that isn’t? Even God’s weavers of words must struggle with the concept of whether the Divinity knows everything about something that isn’t there – or not. Still the superstitious quest for the future is always more exciting than the dull lessons of history. The fact that we still think that way is a bit unsynchronised with the perception of society we profess as scientific and fact-based. It might be true that we can split the atom but we are still as superstitious as our cave-dwelling forebearers.
Unlike the seer, the prophet has no powers, other than his or her memory, with which to chart the future. If you drink your wages on a Friday you will not have a bus fare on Monday; when Monday comes nobody is truly awed by the truth of that prediction. Our elders called it common sense.
As economists and other social commentators fall over themselves to show how they predicted the downturn we have to see the comedy. Ever since Joseph went to Egypt we have known that booms follow busts follow booms follow busts. Nobody got the date right; nobody predicted anything. The novelty of the successful prediction delights the masses and everybody wants to be the one to claim the foresight. This is the realm of the doomsday cult.
The history of religion had taught us that apocalyptic visions and predictions are not only compelling – they are lucrative for the visionary as well. Our natural fear of what the future might bring leaves us easy prey to the convincing fraudster. Mainstream religion has struggled with this phenomenon for centuries – suddenly it is not only the theologian that has a problem.
The sociologist, economist and politician must now mimic their philosophical colleagues in trying to get their message across. That is no simple feat where charismatic soothsayers proclaim inevitable disasters with confidence beyond all telling. As we hear predictions of war and meltdown we should not forget that there are already a few dozen wars happening and meltdown is a reality too.
Where among this clamour of doom is the voice of hope? The economy might be broken but human society has survived famines, genocides and catastrophes. We recount our survival in our scriptures and tradition and from these we can sometimes draw hope.
The ash budded before the oak last spring; that indicates a wet summer!