It is a measure of the durability of the peace process in Northern Ireland that the talks have been securely "parked" by Senator George Mitchell until the first week in September. Despite the continuing negative fall-out from the failure to establish the executive last week and the belated IRA statement, all of the pro-agreement parties adjourn for the summer break still professing their commitment to the Belfast Agreement as the only way forward.
The willingness of Senator Mitchell to re-enter the Northern negotiations, on the invitation of the two governments, offers the best hope that the deadlock surrounding the relationship between the setting up of an inclusive executive and the decommissioning of IRA arms by May 2000 can be broken. Senator Mitchell's determination to do all that he can to make progress has not been made easier by the IRA's latest statement which the First Minister-designate, Mr Trimble, has described as "menacing". It has been viewed by the Northern Secretary, Dr Mowlam, as unhelpful. This newspaper has consistently maintained that the initiative in the decommissioning impasse had to rest with Sinn Fein/IRA and that Mr Trimble has been right to push the republican movement to chose between "the army" and "the party". It also welcomed the commitment given to, and accepted by, the two governments in The Way Forward proposals that Sinn Fein believed it could convince the IRA to voluntarily decommission its arms by May 2000.
Within this context, the IRA statement may not be as "menacing" as it may appear on first reading. It may even mark an advance in the decommissioning argument which is, hopefully, more strategic than tactical at this critical time in the process. An IRA statement criticising the British Government and blaming the unionists causes no great surprise, North or South, on this island. The passage to be analysed in the statement reads: "Those who demand the decommissioning of IRA weapons lend themselves, in the current political context, inadvertently or otherwise, to the failed agenda which seeks the defeat of the IRA. The British Government have the power to change that context and should do so".
Sinn Fein has managed to convince the two governments that the granting of seats to Mr Martin McGuinness and Ms Bairbre de Brun on the Northern Executive is the context in which decommissioning can take place. It would appear that both governments - and Senator Mitchell who refused to comment on it yesterday - see a potential for something positive, rather than entirely negative, in the statement's context.
It is worth noting that on three, if not four, occasions in just over a year, the IRA has issued statements categorically ruling out decommissioning in any circumstances. An IRA statement published in An Phoblacht in April 1998 and repeated the following August made it clear that "there will be no decommissioning by the IRA". By its own established precedents, the latest IRA statement does not withdraw Sinn Fein's commitment to the governments to voluntarily decommission its arms in the event of the formation of the Executive. This will be one of the first issues which Senator Mitchell will have to test in the autumn.
