Noel Whelan: Brexit changes everything for Irish politics

Brexit changes everything. It is worth repeating that mantra over and over again in the months and years to come. The political implications which Brexit gives rise to on the island of Ireland, for example, are already apparent. Even speculation this week about a putative merger between Fianna Fáil and the SDLP has to be analysed in that context.

Since Fianna Fáil suffered electoral collapse in 2011, political scientists have debated the extent to which our party system has been or will be reconfigured. Since the 1930s, electoral competition in Ireland was shaped within a 2½-party system where the battle between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil was the dominant force with Labour as the ‘half party’. That all changed in 2011.

In the aftermath of that year’s general election, Trinity College professor Michael Gallagher christened it an “earthquake election”. He and others were careful to warn then, however, that it would only be after several further elections that we could truly determine whether the Irish party system had actually been dramatically reconfigured.

We have had the 2016 election since then, which itself gave rise to some further shifts and surprises. Fianna Fáil restored its fortunes to some extent while the emergence of ‘new politics’ and the confidence-and-supply agreement blunted competition between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. In 2016 the Labour Party shrunk from the dizzy heights it reached in 2011 back below its traditional position to a point where its survival is not entirely certain. Meanwhile, Sinn Féin has grown incrementally.

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Brexit

Into the mix of forces shaping change in our party system the implications of Brexit must now be added. The tectonic plates under Irish politics north and south are shifting. The question of Irish unity is set to be a central issue in Irish politics for the medium term. The prospect of elections on an all-Ireland basis in the medium term are no longer fanciful.

This new reality, together with the precarious state of the SDLP, have given a whole new context to the notion of Fianna Fáil’s involvement in Northern Ireland politics. Some have sought simplistically to see the current speculation about a Fianna Fáil-SDLP merger as arising because Fianna Fáil is spooked about the rise of Sinn Féin.

One scenario which could be considered is a three-way merger between Fianna Fáil, Labour and the SDLP

Such analysis, however, fails to see the wider post-Brexit context and to appreciate that the initiative towards some kind of merger has come this time strongly from the SDLP side. The SDLP is in a truly dangerous position. Its gradual electoral decline reached a new nadir with the loss of three MPs in the last Westminster election. This has deprived the party of crucial infrastructure and funding. The fact that the Stormont Assembly is inoperable also denies the SDLP the opportunity for any real-life politics, if only as a key opposition voice.

The SDLP leader, Colum Eastwood, and an overwhelming majority of the party’s remaining public representatives are realistic enough to appreciate the critical condition the party is in. That is why the SDLP leadership approached Micheál Martin almost a year ago about a transition towards merger.

Since the SDLP made that approach Fianna Fáil has delayed on any substantial engagement. There have been talks about the issue but no practical steps. Micheál Martin has approached the issue with his trademark caution. In the words of one observer the SDLP has been left like a putative fiancé who having made a proposal is still down on one knee waiting for an answer. Fianna Fáil appears to be sussing out what if any assets the SDLP might bring to the match. Whether or not there will be a marriage or any form of interim cohabitation has less to do with political love between the parties and more to do with whether it would be politically advantageous to Fianna Fáil.

Labour Party

Interestingly, in recent months two different senior Labour Party figures in the Republic, one a former TD, have in general private discussions about the precarious state of their own party suggested to me that one scenario which should be considered is a three-way merger between Fianna Fáil, Labour and the SDLP. It could be fostered, they point out, by a closer working relationship between the two southern parties either in government or opposition after the next election. Of course they both said Labour would voice strong opposition to any suggestion of a merger with Fianna Fáil. They say that could change, particularly if things went badly again for Labour in the next general election.

A Fianna Fáil-Labour-SDLP alignment would create an interesting dynamic at the centre, and centre left of our party system. Such a merger still seems implausible. However, given the shifts we have seen in politics in the Republic, the trends in nationalist politics in the North and the aftershocks of Brexit, nothing can be ruled out. The political times we live in could get even more interesting.