Noel Whelan: FF has made a shrewd move on the presidential vote

Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin moved promptly this week to resolve the question of whether the party would support President Michael D Higgins if he sought a second term in office.

At first it might seem curious for Fianna Fáil to announce in June that the party would support the incumbent, given that the election is not due until October and the President has not yet announced his decision about seeking a second term. But Martin was wise to effect this decision at this time.

Closing the issue off early means it will not absorb parliamentary party energy at a time when Martin believes all should be focused on preparations for the general election. Although that election will most likely take place next year there is still a risk it will take place in the autumn.

In addition, announcing the party’s stance on the presidential election now sidestepped the possibility that a parliamentary party rump unhappy with Martin’s leadership might seek to make mischief by seeking to have the party nominate its own candidate for the presidency.

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The other reason Martin did it now was to send an early message to the party’s councillors to discourage them from flirting with any other contenders who may be trying to get nominated as candidates for the presidential election.

Internal tensions

Given the party’s internal tensions and the requirement to focus on the general election, its interests would not have been served by a drawn-out process of media and political speculation across July and August about whether it would run a candidate or back some other contender.

Prior to the 2011 presidential election, Fianna Fáil dithered for months and appeared to tour the country approaching a series of celebrities, some of low wattage, before finally deciding not to run a candidate. A repeat performance would not serve the party well.

Even if there could be some debate about the timing of Fianna Fáil’s decision there can be little about its merits. There are two compelling and interrelated reasons why Fianna Fáil should support the President if he seeks re-election. Firstly, he is doing a good job. Secondly, for that reason and others he appears impossible to beat.

The President’s approval ratings are off the political scale and a series of opinion polls has shown overwhelming support for a second term. Massive approval ratings for presidents are not, of course, a new phenomenon. Mary Robinson and Mary McAleese both regularly attracted approval ratings at or above 90 per cent. In addition, polls in a presidential race which as yet is only notional should be approached with caution, particularly as no other candidates are in the field to be tested.

There are a couple of acts still to play out in this presidential drama

However, one suspects Martin has had access to reports showing the same type of findings as those conducted by others. They show the support for Higgins continuing as president is deep-seated, across all generations and across supporters of all political parties.

Admiration

Not only is the President respected for his intellect, oratorical skills and careful judgment on most issues, there is also a strong fondness for him. Voters admire the manner in which he has reached out to families who have been the subject of prominent tragedies and literally embraced them on behalf of the people.

Voters note how he captured and led the public mood during the 1916 anniversary and other national commemorations. Voters like that he sticks it to international capitalism and they love the photos of him with his dogs, which occasionally go viral on social media.

Voters care little about the fact that Higgins promised seven years ago he would serve only one seven-year term. The overwhelming majority give him a pass on that because they want him to stay on. His age is a factor in voters’ minds, but they see him as a vital and busy man for his age.

There are a couple of acts still to play out in this drama. The President will make his announcement in the first half of July; the only issue is whether he will do so before or after the Dáil rises on July 12th. Absolutely everyone in politics expects him to announce that he will run again.

Mary Lou McDonald will drag out Sinn Féin’s response to the President’s declaration. The party is a past master at keeping attention on itself. It may even drag it out to mid-September. If its pollsters are telling the party the same thing other polling companies are saying, Sinn Féin is likely ultimately to rule out contesting.

Finally, some of the focus will be on Senator Gerard Craughwell and perhaps one or two other attention-seeking Independents. Even if there is an election none of them is likely to trouble Michael D much.