Voters in the North have to make do with a narrow range of choices within traditional allegiances
A WEEK away from polling day, there are misty patches over some likely results. But it is clear that a break with the traditional electoral stand-off between two major forces – as looks certain in Britain – is not even a Northern mirage. If the Alliance party is ever going to be the British Lib Dems, or even the Labour Party, it is taking its own sweet time.
The North is stuck with its tribal shakeout, though at least each tribe has a choice of parties. Birthplace tends to dictate voting habits, and even some who industriously vote their natal ticket find this a bit sad and unimaginative.
There’s some pretence, though. The diagnosis is uncomfortable: so are the facts. Northern Ireland is still largely segregated. Next Thursday two constituencies are likely to change hands – one as a result of headcount politics, the other as variation on the theme.
In Fermanagh-South Tyrone the candidate anointed as “Independent” by an alliance of the usually warring Ulster Unionists and DUP, Rodney Connor, has a good chance of unseating the Sinn Féin agriculture minister Michelle Gildernew. Agreeing Connor, who had just stood down as chief executive of Fermanagh council, his selling point his very lack of political experience, tore the bottom out of the UCUNF (Ulster Conservatives and Unionists – New Force) – Sir Reg Empey’s hook-up with David Cameron’s Tories.
Cameron famously promised to run a candidate in all 18 constituencies, to allow Northerners the chance of voting for a new-look, avowedly non-sectarian blend of conservatism and unionism. The plan was half-baked, potential candidates problematic from the start. On the Border, what Fermanagh unionists used to call the “frontier”, the imperative was to “take back the seat” won first by Gildernew by the hairsbreadth of 53 votes. Victory in Fermanagh-South Tyrone goes to the candidate who gets the bulk of their own community’s vote. Run internal contenders for unionist or nationalist votes, and kiss victory goodbye – Sir Reg was told by his own activists to forget UCUNF.
Connor was presented as a legitimate exception to the every-constituency rule on the grounds that Gildernew’s abstentionism meant local people were disenfranchised, therefore she must be opposed by the strongest – that is, by a DUP/UU candidate. Sinn Féin responded with an appeal for talks with Margaret Ritchie, the still-new SDLP leader. They wanted to discuss Fermanagh-South Tyrone, and South Belfast – where the SDLP’s Alasdair McDonnell now looks more sure of his seat.
Why? Because unionists couldn’t agree a candidate, and Sinn Féin withdrew their flag-bearer Alex Maskey when Ritchie said no pacts.
Some republicans will grit their teeth and support McDonnell.
In similar mood, many of the SDLP’s 6,000 plus votes in 2007’s Assembly election in Fermanagh-South Tyrone might well give Gildernew their vote this time. They’ll look at Fearghal McKinney, the SDLP’s fresh face on the block from local television news, and chances are they’ll decide “nice fella, we’ll give him a go next Assembly election – if he sticks around and shows he’s serious.” Why back the celebrity novice and hand the seat to a blatant pan-unionist?
In South Antrim meanwhile, UCUNFing came to grief on the candidacy of one Adrian Watson, UU-nominated but rejected by the Tories because of his comments on gay people and Travellers. Sir Reg decided to run himself. The bookies say Catholic votes will take Empey to Westminster. Because Catholics in Crumlin are less sectarian than Catholics in Fermanagh-South Tyrone? No, because South Antrim Catholics have a loathing for sitting MP, the DUP’s Reverend Willie McCrea.
Beating down the DUP’s Westminster bargaining block of nine is an enticement. There’s also that vivid memory of Willie on a night-time platform on the street beside loyalist killer Billy Wright. And because this is an overwhelmingly Protestant constituency, Sir Reg is the only candidate who can oust McCrea. Neither seasoned contender Mitchel McLaughlin for Sinn Féin nor the SDLP’s Michelle Byrne has a chance. Is a Catholic boost for Empey closet sectarianism, or just sensible tactical voting?
There is something a mite distasteful about the outsiders’ mantra – adopted by too many self-deprecating local observers now as a lazy summary – that every election amounts to no more than the “same old same old”. Unionists could be said to be less keen on exercising their democratic rights than nationalists, constituting as they do a larger proportion of non-voters on a regular basis in recent years. But many Northerners are thoughtful voters.
Snootiness about innate sectarianism misses the mark. Yes, religion is a major element of Northern identity. Most Catholics happen to be Irish, most Protestants unionist. Sense of national identity and therefore politics is pitched in opposition on a narrow piece of ground. Most do the best they can, and sometimes with grace.