Three weeks ago I wrote with great optimism about what might be achieved before the end of the year for Northern Ireland. I talked about achieving win-win outcomes and how it could really be over by Christmas.
Twenty-one days later I think I might have been wrong.
With such a precious prize at stake, a high level of competence from the participants could be expected - I thought.
It was not unreasonable to assume that the various representatives would have a reasonable understanding of the basics of negotiations - I thought.
At the very least they would behave like the civilised grown men and women they are - I thought.
What we seem to have got is a bunch of schoolkids squabbling. There are the unionists and Mo Mowlam trading insults. It would seem that the unionists have learned nothing from the last time they tangled with her.
They tried to get her fired. She still has the job and demonstrated her flexibility and speed of response by outflanking them and going straight to the Maze prison. Mere insults will not deflect her.
On the other side you have another two theoretical allies bickering, Sinn Fein versus the SDLP. This is less surprising as both parties are chasing the same nationalist votes. It is likely that their jockeying for position with those voters will continue.
The SDLP is an ageing party. It needs to recruit young, up-andcoming men and women to ensure its survival. Sinn Fein seems to have spotted this potential problem earlier than the SDLP and has spent the last few years actively recruiting young people.
Possibly the most worrying aspect of the lack of progress so far is the document produced this week by the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP). It is designed with no reference whatsoever to any form of compromise. It is a written version of the same stale message we have been getting from the leader, David Trimble.
By ignoring any form of NorthSouth power-sharing structure, it is a deliberate slap in the face of the Irish Government before the talks move to Dublin.
If this document could be viewed as a public negotiating stance, a position from which the UUP would be willing to move in order to reach agreement, it would not be so worrying. And one might have expected that the younger generation of unionists would be more open and forwardlooking, more capable of that movement.
Seeing Jeffrey Donaldson publicly tearing up the Framework Document seems to rule out that possibility.
All the parties have spent more than enough time making statements to their own constituencies. If their own people do not know where they stand at this stage, they never will.
Now is the time for these people to stop playing to the media, to stop looking for inflammatory soundbites, to stop talking to everyone who is not involved in the talks and start negotiating with each other.
While the posturing that has taken place so far has not looked or sounded hopeful, this does not mean that the situation is hopeless. During an interview on The Larry King Show in the United States, Tony Blair said he was optimistic about the prospects for the peace process.
It would be unlike Mr Blair to make a claim like that in such a public forum if he did not genuinely believe it. His current close and supportive relationship with Bill Clinton, and the American President's stance as worldwide peacemaker and policeman, make a spurious claim even less likely, as such a mistake would embarrass them both.
Given that he does see progress as probable, then we must assume that some behind-the-scenes activity is at the root of his optimism.
Once the various parties do settle down to the real task ahead, the tactical conduct of those negotiations will become the main concern.
The performance of the Irish Government's negotiating team will, of course, be vital.
The Minister for Foreign Affairs, David Andrews, has been involved with negotiation teams dealing with the North before. Liz O'Donnell, the Minister of State at the Department of Foreign Affairs, is the new girl on the block and is faced with an extremely steep learning curve.
Both of these people are personable and warm, possibly too nice for the task that faces them. My own experience at Northern Ireland talks taught me that a tough cop/soft cop approach tended to work well.
During the last round of talks Ian Paisley would start his comments with the phrase, "speaking as an Ulsterman". John Wilson, then the Tanaiste, did not let this verbal annexation go. He countered him on every occasion with precisely the same phrase.
The Minister for Defence, Michael Smith, has also had a number of outings and has proved himself more than capable of the table-thumping required. This tactic is important both for the rest of the negotiating team and as a method of achieving progress.
The rest of the negotiating team needs to know that at least one negotiator will not allow the opposition to run riot. Whenever the tough cop takes up one of his or her no-surrender stances, this gives the soft cop the opportunity to compromise quietly, starting with the tough cop's stance rather than the opposition's starting point.
It is difficult, however, to imagine either David Andrews or Liz O'Donnell raising their voices, let alone banging the conference table.
We will shortly see another round of the ludicrous musicalchairs game that has been going on since the peace process started. The Ulster Democratic Party (UDP) will be allowed back to the negotiating table as the Ulster Freedom Fighters (UFF) have said that they will no longer carry out acts of violence.
Sinn Fein, on the other hand, is holding on to its seat at the table by its fingertips following two further unclaimed atrocities, and declarations from the IRA that it was not responsible for the killings.
It is impossible to carry out worthwhile negotiations when the participants are being forced to leave and rejoin every few weeks. As long as the actions of the tiny minority who still believe in murder as some sort of solution are allowed to have such a direct bearing on the talks, they will delay, halt or ruin them as they please.
The vast majority of the people of Northern Ireland want peace: that much is obvious. We need to do our best to deliver that peace.