Newton Emerson: Why a Stormont deal remains likely

A couple of days of optimism at the Stormont talks , followed by a return to deadlock, has raised an awkward question. Having made no obvious preparations to do so, how will Sinn Féin and the DUP sell a deal – which is still likely to happen – to their supporters?

The blunt line is that they will hardly need to – supporters of the two parties have nowhere else to go. No hardline rivals are waiting in the wings to capitalise on disaffection.

This was the logic that caused the British and Irish governments and Northern Ireland’s electorate to bring both parties in from the cold a decade ago, after the UUP and SDLP failed to build out from the centre ground.

Now, following the breakdown in talks, there may be a period for both sides to reflect, but sooner rather than later they are likely to return to the table.

Newton Emerson: Catalan crisis a double-edged sword for Sinn Féin

---

Leo Varadkar courting trouble over Border poll

---

Newton Emerson: Curious tale of the Brexit dog that didn’t bark

---

Newton Emerson: For powersharing to work, the veto must go

---

Until last year, Sinn Féin in particular might have feared voters staying at home.

The total nationalist vote had been declining despite a rise in the Catholic population, which was widely interpreted as nationalists becoming comfortable with Northern Ireland.

The crisis of the past year has revealed nationalists were actually deserting Stormont in frustration with Northern Ireland politics, specifically the DUP walking over Sinn Féin.

Stonking return

Walking out of Stormont in response has been the most electorally successful policy Sinn Féin has ever had, taking it to within 1,000 votes of becoming the largest party in March’s assembly election.

Yet the very narrowness of that gap ensures nationalists will never sit out an election again. The prospect of eclipsing the DUP means Gerry Adams could sing God Save the Queen in Ulster Scots and still expect a stonking return at the polls.

The DUP can count on the same white-knuckle contest to hold on to its support – in June’s Westminster election it was up 67,000 votes on March, itself a record result, despite presiding over political disaster and having a leader so demoralised she sometimes appeared to be in hiding.

Now Arlene Foster could give a Bodenstown address in Irish and still top the polls.

The past year has convinced many republicans that a united Ireland is just around the corner

So if the DUP and Sinn Féin can come to terms at Stormont – as every sign and precedent suggests they will, even after Wednesday’s events – the most intractable parts of their base will just have to suck it up.

Both parties are of course highly skilled at selling major deals, having done so three times in the past 10 years.

They have always approached this by declaring an outbreak of harmony or at least professional co-operation, sufficient to put the preceeding nastiness and brinkmanship behind them.

Wary of complacency

This time will be different, not so much because there has been more nastiness but because Sinn Féin has learned to be wary of complacency.

Fortunately, it can call on the zero-sum subtext that helped to sell every previous deal – namely, that if one side is satisfied, the other must be dissatisfied.

Northern Ireland’s unionist and nationalist electorates are so self-contained they can believe this simultaneously – in fact, that has been the entire basis of the peace process to date.

Sinn Féin and the DUP might portray the latest deal as heralding a new era of respect and stability but expect each to imply they have won and the other has most definitely lost.

Upset supporters will assist with this tactic – and there will be a lot of unionists upset about Irish language legislation, just as there will be a lot of republicans upset by a return to Stormont.

That will have to be a good enough outcome for Northern Ireland overall. Hopes for better died with the era of the UUP and the SDLP, for which Northern Ireland has only itself to blame.

The immediate future will still be tricky for Sinn Féin and the DUP. Both have built their success on communing with their base, often above all other considerations. There will be a bumpy ride for everyone as they try to minimise the backlash from a Stormont deal.

The past year has convinced many republicans not only that surpassing the DUP is imminent but that a united Ireland is just around the corner. A lot of people are going to have to be lured down off the ceiling with demonstrations that the project is still on course.

The potential of Irish language legislation to stoke unionist paranoia is likely to be exploited to the hilt.

The DUP has never had to manage the kind of retreat it is about to have to make, while Foster seems uniquely ill-suited to the task.

The unionist party is not as close to its base as Sinn Féin – it has a fraction of the membership, is far less community-focused and holds the loyalist constituency at an arm’s length. Voters have flocked to it this year only to stave off failure, rather than – as in Sinn Féin’s case – to reward perceived strength.

There will be DUP wobbling and petulance as it encounters disappointment on the doorsteps.

However, as both parties are likely to head back to Stormont for their various selfish reasons, they may just suck it up. Selling visions of victory has left them nowhere else to go.