Newton Emerson: Unionist acceptance of NI protocol very close

Only one in eight unionists say the Northern Ireland protocol is the most important political issue to them. Four in 10 would accept the European Union's recent offer of sea border mitigations "and move on", while only one-third would reject it.

These are among the findings of a survey commissioned by Liverpool University, conducted by Social Market Research and published last week.

It received extensive media coverage within Northern Ireland, but it has suited neither unionists nor nationalists to dwell on it.

The survey's other key finding was robust support for the union: if a Border poll were held tomorrow, 59 per cent said they would vote to stay in the United Kingdom, or 66 per cent excluding those who do not know or would not vote.

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Unionist parties hold just 45 per cent of Assembly votes but the Liverpool University researchers say this discrepancy is easily explained. There is “a long-term drift from unionist parties by those who wish to remain in the UK”, driven by a more socially liberal electorate.

Selective citing of opinion polls is a national sport in Northern Ireland, despite relatively few polls being conducted. I should acknowledge my welcome for the Liverpool survey as it identifies an enormous group of soft-unionist protocol pragmatists – in other words, people like me.

Only 40 per cent of unionists who voted in the EU referendum backed remain. Every elected unionist representative wants the protocol abolished. Yet it turns out people like me are still the broad majority in Northern Ireland, the sensible salt of this good green and orange earth.

Of course, nearly all unionists would prefer the sea border to be mitigated away until it barely exists – but then so would most nationalists and “others”. About 90 per cent of all three groups say goods meeting EU and UK standards should be able to enter Northern Ireland without checks.

Unionists also have to accept that living within an arrangement at odds with their nationality is what they demand of nationalists

Unionist acceptance of the protocol is resignation, not enthusiasm. This silent majority is to some extent a sheepish majority, digesting unionism’s fault for its own plight.

Unionists also have to accept that living within an arrangement at odds with their nationality is what they demand of nationalists. I believe you can hear the wheels turning on that thought if you stand quietly enough in the garden centre.

But is anyone listening? Responding to the survey, DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson conceded the protocol is not "the number one issue now" for unionists, but warned it will be as the UK and EU diverge.

Donaldson is still threatening to walk out of Stormont, although the survey found most unionists, including most DUP supporters, consider it “imperative” the Executive survives its full term.

The DUP leader is promising London’s threat to trigger article 16 will obtain major changes the protocol, although not remove it. Even if he is mistaken this is realistic positioning, in line with the British government’s apparent intentions. Most unionists will hope the ploy succeeds but be unimpressed by Donaldson’s attempts to claim credit for it and unnerved by the raising of tensions. What the garden centre really wants from the DUP is contrition.

There will be greater dismay at the EU’s response to London. Threatening a trade war with the UK is something almost no unionist can support. It ensures Brussels will lose majority sympathy in Northern Ireland, which it professes to value. The rush to declare war is because delay might prove there is no serious risk to the single market and the protocol has been absurdly over-engineered. This could be seen as appalling cynicism.

The Republic may owe unionism nothing on Brexit, but it must accept the union is a fact for a long time to come – a particular challenge under a future Sinn Féin government.

Nobody can foresee Northern Ireland celebrating a second centenary because nobody can imagine anything a century ahead. However, a 150th anniversary is plausible, even probable. Protocol pragmatism is the only sustainable common ground for everyone on this island on this timescale.

If people like me turn against it, the protocol will have neither unionist nor overall majority support

Support for the protocol is at a critical juncture. Majority unionist acceptance is tantalisingly close, yet certain to ebb away if EU-UK confrontation persists. Acceptance by an overall majority of Northern Ireland’s population is ambivalent, conditional and on a knife edge. In a survey last month by Queen’s University Belfast and LucidTalk, just 52 per cent agreed the protocol was “on balance a good thing”. If people like me turn against it, the protocol will have neither unionist nor overall majority support and will become politically untenable.

All the EU has to do to avoid that is turn the temperature down slightly, unilaterally, at no risk to itself or Ireland. Waive a little more inconsequential paperwork; agree a token layer of arbitration between the protocol and the European Court of Justice, as in every trade deal; stop pretending everyone’s dog has rabies.

Failure to do so could soon join the long list of tragic Brexit misjudgments.