Newton Emerson: Stormont lurches into new mode of operation

Four Irish governments in the past half century lasted less than a year. Another three barely made it to 18 months.

That gives some perspective to the new mode of operation Stormont has entered since Paul Givan, the DUP first minister, resigned two weeks ago. His resignation would previously have caused devolution to collapse a week later. But changes to the rules, agreed in the 2020 New Decade, New Approach deal, were enacted in the nick of time.

Stormont now has a six-month cooling off period if the first or deputy first minister resigns, during which other Ministers remain in a caretaker capacity and the Assembly continues, essentially as normal.

That means Stormont stumbles on until May’s scheduled election, when another six-month cooling off period commences if an Executive cannot be formed, as the DUP has warned is likely.

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There is a limit to how long caretaker Ministers can credibly linger in post

That could last up to November. Should an Executive not be formed, the new rules require the Northern Secretary to hold an election within three months, potentially leaving the caretaker Ministers in place until next February – a full year away.

In theory, the post-election cycle could then repeat indefinitely: another six-month cooling-off period to form an Executive, with an election three months later.

In practice, there is a limit to how long caretaker Ministers can credibly linger in post. The Northern Secretary or the Assembly can cut short the cooling-off periods and move straight into repeated elections.

Realistically, a second failure to form an Executive would lead to a major renegotiation of powersharing. Removing the requirement for the largest unionist and nationalist parties to be in office is the obvious change.

The last major renegotiation, at St Andrews in 2006, made changes to the rules that had unintended – if not unforeseen – consequences.

It is already apparent the same is true of the New Decade, New Approach reforms.

The two types of cooling-off periods, mid-term and post-election, were meant to bring stability to powersharing. By walking out within six months of an election, the DUP has run both types together into a year-long limbo, then used the post-election period to threaten instability over the Brexit protocol. Exasperation at this from other parties and the public is driving thoughts of more profound reform.

It is almost amusing how quickly Stormont has adapted to its new rules and found new ways to agree and disagree within them.

In the days after Givan’s resignation, peace broke out between the DUP and the rest of the Executive as Ministers rushed to approve policies and pass legislation: rising for the election causes all Bills in the Assembly to fall.

A wide range of objectives benefited, from organ donation to environmental protection. Some were uncontentious; others a source of lengthy deadlock. Many had been dragged out for years due to the horse trading that has seemed intrinsic to a DUP-Sinn Féin duopoly, or to powersharing’s apparently unavoidable caution, confusion and complexity.

It was a revelation to see how much of this could be unblocked overnight for fear of antagonising voters in an imminent election.

Alas, within a few more days, the truce was turned on its head as every party jockeyed to pass the blame over Covid-19 restrictions.

All pandemic measures were expected to be lifted but UUP Minister of Health Robin Swann said he could not do so without a full meeting of the Executive, DUP first minister included, as the matter was "significant or controversial". A full meeting is required under such circumstances by the law enacting the Belfast Agreement.

One of the arguments for introducing cooling-off periods was to penalise the party that walks out

The question was resolved by other Ministers writing to Swann to say they did not consider it significant or controversial. Caretaker devolution had produced its first stand-off and ridiculous fudge.

Then all good faith evaporated. On Monday, the DUP confirmed it will try using the Assembly’s veto, the petition of concern, to sink an Alliance private members’ Bill on integrated education, backed by every other party. The move is particularly outrageous because New Decade, New Approach also promised to prevent abuse of the veto. The same day, Sinn Féin claimed it can fund a GAA stadium in the absence of a first minister but not smaller soccer stadiums understood to be part of the same deal. This was condemned by Alliance and the UUP.

One of the arguments for introducing cooling-off periods was to penalise the party that walks out by giving everyone else a chance to demonstrate they can get on with everyday government and each other. This is an open goal for Sinn Féin to lead by example during a DUP flounce. The republican party appeared to seize it after Givan’s resignation by approving commemoration of the Queen’s platinum jubilee.

It was clearly too much to hope this would last with an election on the horizon, but perhaps after May a different tenor of caretaker devolution will emerge.

There could be a significant and controversial amount of time for it to do so.