ONE YEAR on from Kosovo’s declaration of independence its situation is neither as gloomy as expected by critics, nor has much progress been made on the promise hoped for by its proponents.
This was a necessary decision, given the passionate commitment of most Kosovars to independent statehood. They have been through a dreadful two decades of conflict marked by mass deaths and suffering. It erupted in the late 1980s as Yugoslavia began to disintegrate when Slobodan Milosevic’s Serbia demanded the right to retain its ancestral control over Kosovo. After the end of the Bosnian and Croatian wars of succession in 1995-6 that right was reasserted when a vicious Serb crackdown on Kosovo rebels killed 10,000 people and drove 100,000 from their homes. Following the Nato bombing campaign in 1999 reprisals saw another 200,000 Serbs and Roma forced to flee. It was then really only a matter of time before independence was proclaimed, despite the continuing resistance of the 120,000 Serb minority to this demand from Kosovo’s two million ethnic majority.
That reality has been recognised by a sufficient number of other states to justify its new status – 54 so far, including 22 of the European Union’s 27 member states. It is still an unsatisfactorily incomplete process of diplomatic recognition. Independence has been vociferously opposed by Serbia, despite the formation of a pro-EU coalition there last year. Russia has loudly supported them, warning that Kosovo sets secessionist precedents in Georgia and Moldova, of which it took full advantage. States like Spain are also fearful that their regional nationalisms will be emboldened by Kosovo.
There has been no renewed violence between majority and minority, but little or no reconciliation either. Most Serbs live in the northern city of Mitrovica, which relates to Belgrade not Pristina. About one-fifth live in scattered enclaves elsewhere, making them more inclined to pragmatic coexistence. Security is still maintained by 15,000 Nato-led troops and 3,000 EU-led police. Irish Army and Garda contingents have made a valuable contribution to these forces, which deserves greater recognition in our debates about peacekeeping.
Over the last year unemployment has remained very high and little has been done to encourage economic or social development, aside from international aid. There are hopeful signs that over time a gradual normalisation of Serbia’s relations with the EU can help mitigate this picture by promising a long-term peace in the Balkan region – an essential condition for a stable Europe.