President Donald Trump’s foreign policy objectives towards the Middle East and beyond are revealed in the choice of destinations and agreements reached in his first international trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates this week. These rich Arab states are responding with long-term investment and arms deals favouring the US. They are confident about influencing Trump’s policy agenda towards Iran, Syria and prospective normalisation agreements with Israel about a new regional order. These overlapping priorities are plainly visible in his decision not to visit Israel.
That money talks first for this US administration is seen in the military and investment agreements being signed. Accompanying Trump are leading US high tech business figures who expect to benefit from these deals, which he can broadcast as transactional triumphs. His own family fortunes are improved, too, in the Qatari gift of a $400 million presidential plane, crypto deals and future regional investment plans. Gulf rulers are seeking to optimise their oil-based surpluses in long-term energy and security deals with the US.
The Gulf rulers prioritise a regional political order favouring their interests. That includes enduring security for their authoritarian regimes, improved relations with Iran, a stable Syria and a two-state agreement on Palestine as a pre-condition for any normalisation arrangements with Israel. They fear they could not withstand the popular anger against them if they follow Binyamin Netanyahu’s agenda to eliminate Palestinian sovereignty and rights. Their preferences overlap with Trump’s, who has become rapidly more distant from Netanyahu’s agenda on Gaza, the Palestinians and Iran. Trump now resents the Israeli leader’s active efforts to influence US policy as an unwarranted interference in his own political leadership.
The fallout from this convergence of interests between the Trump administration and Gulf regimes can create a potentially constructive dynamic for its major regional problems. The US talks with Iran on nuclear enrichment and economic sanctions represent an engagement deserving serious regional and international support. Its logic is away from the military action Netanyahu hoped to undertake with Trump and towards a more stable outcome. The decision to lift US sanctions on Syria and support its new regime goes in the same direction, as does the US ceasefire with the Houthis in Yemen.
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The Trump administration’s growing impatience with Netanyahu’s maximalist war aims in Gaza, together with his own exposure to Gulf opinion on the question during this trip, should encourage him to put pressure on Israel. An immediate resumption of humanitarian aid flows to Gaza is essential, as is a restarting of ceasefire talks with a view to ending the hostilities.
