In the current debate on Irish reunification, it is striking how little consideration has been given to exactly what sort of constitutional structures would be best for a newly unified state. Even the most ardent pro-unity voices are reluctant to spell out their preferences. But the salutary lessons of German unification and Brexit illustrate the dangers of embarking on such a change without a clear road map.
The public’s perspective on the matter is explored in the latest tranche of polling results from the North and South collaboration between The Irish Times and the Arins Project. Respondents were asked their opinions on a range of post-unification options. There was a strongly negative response from voters in the Republic to any measures that mandated the sort of power-sharing structures that currently underpin the Northern Ireland Executive. Southern voters were slightly less opposed, but far from enthusiastic, about a proposal to guarantee unionist representation in the government of a unified state.
Both propositions were more positively received in Northern Ireland, although Northern Catholics still opposed them. Northern Protestants, in contrast, strongly supported a guarantee of unionist representation in government.
The results come in the wake of earlier polls which showed resistance in the Republic to concessions on issues such as flags, anthems and the Commonwealth. On first reading, these latest results might appear to confirm a similar intransigence. But further results published today show a clear majority of Southern voters agree “consideration should be given to significant changes”.
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It is easier to acknowledge the need for undefined changes than to agree to more specific proposals. And it is clear that a segment of respondents simply see no need for any change at all.
But it is also possible that people in Republic – along with many in the North – may have looked at the rigidly identity-based system of government in operation at Stormont and concluded that there are better ways to protect minority rights and ensure political representation for all.
