The Irish Times view on the latest reports on climate change: warnings going unheeded

The goal at the UN climate summit in Paris in 2015 of limiting global temperature rises to 1.5 degrees centigrade by 2050 was a hard-fought political compromise, and, to many, an unrealistic target. It was nevertheless an important symbolic moment when the world appeared be at a political turning point on the climate crisis.

But where do we stand now? In truth, galloping towards 3 degrees. Despite fine words and more promises, three quarters of the world’s leading climate scientists surveyed by the Guardian (77 per cent) believe global temperatures will reach at least 2.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, a devastating degree of heating, while almost half (42 per cent) think it will be more than 3 degrees. Only six per cent think the 1.5 degrees limit will be achieved.

The scientists, 380 of them, all lead authors or review editors of the UN’s massive Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports since 2018, squarely blame failure on a lack of political will and warn that we are moving into completely uncharted, potentially cataclysmic territory. Our intricately connected global society means the impact of climate in one place, whether extreme weather, flooding, melting ice caps, or pollution , can cascade around the world, through food price spikes, broken supply chains, disease, and migration. With 3 degrees of global heating, cities including Shanghai, Rio de Janeiro, Miami and The Hague would end up below sea level.

Further evidence of warming came this week from the EU Copernicus Climate Change Service, showing that the average global air temperature last month was a record for April – the 11th month in a row when the record was broken

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As for Ireland, despite the promises of the Government, we remain the third worst per capita emitter of greenhouse gas emissions in Europe. According to the latest projections by the Environmental Protection Agency and analysis by An Taisce, Ireland will fall significantly short of its legally binding 2030 climate targets.

When will we listen to the warnings