Joe Biden’s message to China over Taiwan has been termed strategic ambiguity. “Keep your hands off, or we may be forced to respond in an unspecified manner”, the US has been saying to Beijing. Nuclear weapons may or may not be in the mix of any response.
The message to North Korea, spelled out for South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol during last week’s official Washington visit, was much blunter and less ambiguous. The US’s “extended deterrence” commitment to defend its ally would mean, President Biden insisted, a “swift, overwhelming and decisive response” to any North Korean nuclear attack, including retaliation in kind by the US, making long implicit guarantees explicit.
A “Washington Declaration” promised US nuclear-armed submarines would resume port visits and pledged to engage Seoul in close consultations over US Korean Peninsula nuclear strategy. “I have absolute authority, and sole authority, to launch a nuclear weapon,” Biden said, “but what the declaration means is that we will consult with our allies, if any action is so called for.”
In return Yoon reassured the US that Seoul would not develop its own nuclear weapons, a pledge that will annoy those hawks who have been pressing the issue with growing public support. The North has make significant advances in its weapons programme- including regular testing of ballistic missiles that can theoretically reach the US mainland.
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A recent South Korean poll found that 49 per cent doubt Washington’s willingness to fight the North at the risk of a nuclear attack on the US mainland. Close to 77 per cent said South Korea needs to develop its own nuclear arsenal.
Yoon’s visit also, however, provoked liberal critics at home who worry that stepping closer to Washington will further escalate regional tensions with China and North Korea.
Despite years of international sanctions targeting the Pyongyang regime and rounds of unsuccessful talks, the call for re-engaging in dialogue still gets an echo.