The thing about stumbling blocks is that they're supposed to be unexpected obstacles that are accidentally tripped over. Decommissioning is not in any way an unexpected obstacle, and everyone seems to be going out of their way to trip over it.
For example, Gen John de Chastelain's questionnaire and the report which will come from it is a sensible move. It puts the onus on all of the paramilitary organisations, republican and unionist, to put their position on the record in a context that will allow comparison. It will allow the Decommissioning Commission to make a judgment on whether terrorist weapons will be destroyed and to make a clear recommendation to the parties in the negotiations.
So the Ulster Unionist Party has warned that "euphemistic language" would not resolve the deadlock. Couching the threat in such vague language has allowed the UUP to object to almost any set of words that does not precisely match what it is looking for.
And David Trimble called yet again for Mo Mowlam's resignation. Again he wanted a scapegoat so he tried to set up Mo as the one responsible for a failure that has yet to happen. He tried it before, it didn't work then and he should have learned his lesson. Don't mess with one of the most popular cabinet ministers in Britain.
At the same time we have had Sinn Fein pointing out that they it cannot deliver IRA decommissioning just as the British government has failed to do over the last 30 years. The argument itself is patent rubbish, but it builds another get-out clause into the proceedings for it by returning to the idea that the IRA and Sinn Fein are unlinked. A stance no one is buying.
This behaviour would seem to indicate that neither the republicans nor the unionists really believe a solution is possible and are busily constructing the arguments that will get them off the hook should the Belfast Agreement fail. Should the unthinkable, though now more likely, happen and no agreement be reached by the June 30th those arguments will work only with the converted.
Those who've already bought into the various stances will repeat the arguments to each other and claim it was intransigence on the other side that destroyed the deal. But the unconverted won't buy this sophistry.
They'll look at the clause in the agreement and wonder what could have gone wrong. The clause itself, while allowing room for manoeuvre, states clearly that decommissioning has to take place within two years of the agreement being signed. The two years won't be up until May 2000. So what's the problem?
Sinn Fein signed the agreement, so why can't the paramilitary group it represents say it will decommission by the deadline? And if it does not want to why can't it say that clearly?
Those are the obvious questions, as far as the general public is concerned, and while they contain a percentage of naivety they are the questions at the root of the problem. Attempting to distract from these key concerns in the way that the two sides in the North have in the last year won't wash.
However, how badly damaged the parties could be is a minor concern. What matters now is whether a resolution can be achieved. I believe it can.
Partially it is because both sides realise failure will damage them. But the ones who will make the difference are Bertie Ahern and Tony Blair. Both have been carefully laying the groundwork for the upcoming negotiations over the past weeks.
Their statements have been designed to exploit the limited common ground that is available, or more specifically the ground that neither side can readily dispute, that decommissioning must happen and that a clear commitment to do so must be forthcoming, with the setting up of the executive dependent upon that.
That both Ahern and Blair have been toeing the same line is obviously no coincidence. There is a game plan in place, as is essential in any tricky negotiation. The Government has been handling this area very carefully. A minimum of people have been involved directly, no off-the-cuff remarks have been allowed and only a select few Ministers have been making public comments, namely, the Taoiseach, David Andrews, John O'Donoghue and Liz O'Donnell.
Not alone is every sentence carefully selected, but every word is equally monitored so as to avoid giving hostages to fortune. As far as possible Blair and Ahern have been attempting to give themselves every chance of getting a satisfactory solution right down to clearing their diaries for the next week. Both men are able negotiators, as was proved by the fact that the agreement was reached in the first place.
And both are entirely committed to resolving the standoff.
Blair used the Senator Mitchell tactic of setting a deadline. His desire for neat solutions showed its head in the selection of the date. It just so happens that devolution of power to Scotland and Wales takes place on that date, and nothing would please him more than to be able to present to his country all three areas gaining a degree of autonomy.
The people of Northern Ireland are once again facing a long hot summer of marches. They voted for the Assembly, for peace and for progress. They need reassurance from their own politicians and the two government leaders that everyone is as committed as ever to achieving a resolution without recourse to violence by anyone. Of course, it has taken a long time to get to where we are now and it will take some more considerable time, but isn't it going to be worth it in the end?