Must it take another Omagh to shock the two governments into action over the peace process? We came very close to that last week when a bomb, placed inside a British army base in Co Derry, failed to explode. Those who placed the device left no doubt about their intentions.
The bomb, consisting of three gas cylinders packed with explosive, was placed beside the wall of an accommodation building and timed to go off at 3 a.m. Police believe that if it had exploded dozens of soldiers would have been killed, and that civilians in a nearby hospital would have been in serious danger.
What would have happened to the hopes of saving the Belfast Agreement if the bombers had succeeded in their murderous purpose? The papers would be full of reports of prime ministerial meetings. There would have been a royal visit to comfort the victims.
The President would have travelled North to express the revulsion of the people of this State. Politicians would continue to say that nothing, but nothing, must be allowed to stop the search for peace. And so on.
By the grace of God it didn't happen, this time. Instead, there is a sense of political drift. This may be unfair. The Northern Ireland Secretary has urged the political parties in Northern Ireland to become engaged in meaningful talks. But the recriminations continue as each side plays to its own constituency.
Attitudes appear to be hardening. In the broad unionist community, there is a certain satisfaction that, at last, they seem to have arrived on the moral high ground. There are very few voices arguing for some compromise that might save the Belfast Agreement.
On the contrary, the anti-agreement forces within the Ulster Unionist Party are gaining in confidence. A letter published in this newspaper on Monday from Philip Weir, chairman of the Ulster Young Unionist Council, laid out a set of demands on the IRA which goes far beyond the simple handover of weapons and includes the "dismantling of paramilitary structures".
As I reported here last week, the view in the NIO is that "the wolves are still circling Trimble". The suspension of the executive may have given him a short respite, but his leadership is far from secure. There is concern about a possible alliance between Jeffrey Donaldson and Peter Robinson, which would draw support from the younger anti-agreement members of the UUP, Arlene Foster, Philip Weir and others.
On the nationalist side, the situation is every bit as fraught, possibly even more so. It was a reasonable objective for Peter Mandelson to want to save what remains of moderate unionism, but the Secretary of State underestimated the trauma that the suspension of the executive would inflict on the republican community. If the British government suspected that the Sinn Fein leadership was exaggerating the danger of a split, the Ballykelly bomb should provide a reminder that there are wolves circling in the republican hinterland as well.
Mr Adams has urged republicans and nationalists to "take to the streets in support of peace". His call has been criticised as deliberately provocative. We are moving into a dangerous period in the North. The marching season will be upon us. The possibility of violent clashes on the streets will make it even more difficult to proceed with the other reforms in the Belfast Agreement, including the Patten report.
Against this, the Sinn Fein leader has said that it is important for nationalists to reclaim a share in the ownership of the Belfast Agreement. This is, or should be, a priority for the government of this State, where people voted overwhelmingly in support of the Good Friday deal.
Talking to Northern nationalists, one finds an almost general sense of disappointment at the loss of the political institutions, and no idea of how to put them back together again. I asked a friend in Derry how she felt, expecting a long discussion, and received a one word reply: "heartbroken".
Gerry Adams argues that it may not be possible to rebuild the political institutions, that it will be necessary to negotiate a new agreement. He may be right, but it is a daunting prospect. We have seen so often in Northern Ireland that the only people who benefit from a political vacuum are those who are prepared to take the path of violence.
What is needed urgently now is for a new momentum to be injected into the political process. There has been hopeful talk that, perhaps, St Patrick's Day in Washington could provide a better atmosphere for this to happen. But Bill Clinton is coming to the end of his Presidency. The United States is in election mode. George Mitchell has no desire to take up his cross again for Ireland.
Besides, we know in our hearts that we have to deal with this problem between ourselves. The onus for rebuilding public confidence in the political process rests squarely with the two governments and, in particular, with the two prime ministers.
It is very nearly incredible that Bertie Ahern and Tony Blair have not had a full meeting to discuss a joint strategy for dealing with the present crisis. Both men have other problems to deal with. But at a time when the two political communities in Northern Ireland are retreating to their respective trenches, London and Dublin must show that they remain committed to the Belfast Agreement.
Gerry Adams has appealed to "the great and the good, to civic society, to the churches, to ordinary people" to take back the initiative and he is making a good point. But the truth is that most people in Northern Ireland are exhausted and bewildered by what seems to them to be a failure on the part of politicians to find a way to overcome these problems.
We do not see tens of thousands of demonstrators on the streets of Belfast or Dublin, let alone London, as has happened in recent weeks in Vienna. But both communities badly need to see that the Taoiseach and the British Prime Minister are united in their desire to rescue the agreement. Bertie Ahern should arrange a summit meeting with Tony Blair, preferably in Belfast, immediately.
