There will be changes “within the ranks” of Sinn Féin following last week’s Irish general election, DUP leader Gavin Robinson has predicted, speaking to the Belfast News Letter. “Whatever the outcome it should not disrupt from the work of the Northern Ireland executive,” he added, apparently more as a demand than as a reassurance.
Few political interviews in Northern Ireland over the past few days have not touched on how Sinn Féin’s electoral setback might affect Stormont’s stability.
These concerns show how the institution is still seen as fragile after two lengthy collapses. However, Sinn Féin has nothing to gain by actively destabilising devolution. The real danger is of the party playing it safe – becoming completely risk-averse at Stormont until its next chance at office in the Republic, endlessly putting off difficult decisions that are already disastrously overdue.
This is not inevitable. Sinn Féin has been using its leadership of the northern executive to demonstrate its fitness for government in Dublin. It has put forward a coherent set of policies under a strong team of ministers. As it now needs to extend that demonstration by at least five years it should be even more motivated to make a success of it. But this is a rather idealistic line of reasoning.
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The cynical approach would be to continue making positive statements and gestures, with Michelle O’Neill acting as “First Minister for all” while avoiding contention by doing nothing much else. Steadily worsening problems with public services, infrastructure and the environment could be blamed on unionist obstruction, lack of British government funding or the turgid complexities of powersharing.
Most voters in the Republic would have only a vague impression of all this and could be told Sinn Féin was doing its best. Many of the party’s supporters in the North would go along with it.
The paradox for republicans of making Northern Ireland work has been eased by Sinn Féin becoming the largest party and throwing itself into the role. However, an overwhelming urge remains to decry the State as fundamentally unworkable, with a united Ireland as the only solution. Sinn Féin would not have to be so gauche as offer up this excuse. Plenty of people would make the point on its behalf.
Not everyone is convinced the party’s posture of leadership is sincere. At Stormont the SDLP opposition has complained of decisions being repeatedly put back. Sinn Féin’s finance minister Caoimhe Archibald has promised progressive tax reform. She blamed the DUP this week for blocking a minor revenue-raising measure but other delays appear to be her responsibility.
Sinn Féin’s infrastructure minister John O’Dowd has proposed funding vital water investment with a levy on developers. This could be an ingenious alternative to domestic water charges but a strange reluctance to promote the policy suggests it could also be a distraction.
There is enough dysfunction across the executive to give Sinn Féin cover for a strategy of quiet quitting. The UUP, which controls health, has refused to support the budget, and is generally acting like an opposition within government.
Despairing nationalists and others are increasingly looking to the Republic for help. The lead editorial in Monday’s Irish News called on the incoming Irish government to “continue to adopt an all-island approach to investment in people and infrastructure”. The Shared Island Initiative has fostered this hope, but most of Stormont’s problems are the wrong size to solve with Dublin’s money. The extra £150 million a year required for water, for example, should be within Stormont’s ability to find while being beyond the ability of any Irish government to bung over the Border.
What Stormont needs is help with its decision-making. Under the Belfast Agreement Dublin cannot intervene directly on devolved issues. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael might feel further constrained by their rivalry with Sinn Féin.
In their manifestos both Civil War parties promise better statistics and research to enable North-South comparisons on the economy, public policy and social indicators. That might help nudge or embarrass the executive in the North towards more decisive action, although any effect would be slight.
But Dublin does have a role in reforming Stormont’s structures. The agreement requires all its institutions to be kept under regular review by the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference, which met in Dublin on Tuesday. This requirement has long been neglected.
Sinn Féin and the DUP have promised to discuss reform yet when the SDLP raised it in the assembly in March both main parties said it had to be discussed at a specialist committee. When the SDLP and Alliance raised it this week at that committee both main parties vetoed it again. “It would be great if London and Dublin engaged on this,” SDLP assembly leader Matthew O’Toole posted afterwards on social media.
That would be most productive way for Ireland’s next government to approach its complicated northern relationship with Sinn Féin.