Opinion

One year after the brutal Hamas attacks, Netanyahu is in a stronger position than ever

Some within Israel argue that the time is ripe for an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, or even toppling the regime. The United States preaches caution, but only of a kind

Binyamin Netanyahu is the subject of an arrest warrant request from the International Criminal Court. Photograph: Abir Sultan/Pool via AP
Vincent Durac
Mon Oct 07 2024 - 06:15

No one could have predicted the current Middle East landscape 12 months ago.

The brutal, shocking Hamas attacks on southern Israel on October 7th of last year took the lives of almost 1,200 Israelis, according to Israel. And the conflict that followed has been devastating for Gaza and Lebanon and Hamas and Hizbullah.

Meanwhile, beleaguered Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu appears, against all the odds, to be in a stronger position than ever — in stark contrast to the situation just over 12 months ago when his dominant position in the country’s politics, spanning decades, appeared to be coming to an inevitable end.

On the face of it, Israel and Netanyahu appear to have achieved a great deal in confronting their enemies in the region. The leadership of Hamas and its rank and file have suffered enormous losses. Israel claims to have killed at least 18,000 Hamas fighters and while this figure is rejected by Hamas, the threat to Israel from Hamas has without doubt diminished significantly in the past year.

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In Lebanon, Israeli intelligence appears to have penetrated much deeper into Hizbullah than anyone would previously have imagined. The late September attacks in which the explosion of thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hizbullah personnel — resulting in the deaths of at least 37 people, injuries to nearly 3,000 and even greater damage to the organisation’s communications structures — was an indication of just how deep.

Israeli air strikes continue to pound the southern suburbs of Lebanon's capital, Beirut.

Israel has targeted the senior leadership of Hizbullah as never before. Killing Hassan Nasrallah, the organisation’s leader for the past 32 years, is the clearest expression of this. But Hizbullah has suffered other significant losses, including the assassinations by Israel of Ibrahim Aqil, a founding member of its military wing, Fuad Shukr, a senior military adviser to Nasrallah and Ibrahim Jazini, who was responsible for internal security. On October 1st, Israel followed with a military incursion into southern Lebanon, preceded by an intensive bombing campaign that targeted Hizbullah throughout Lebanon and which to date has cost nearly 2,000 lives while displacing hundreds of thousands of Lebanese.

The reaction of the Iranian regime to all of this — as well as provocations that have included the killing by Israel of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh while he was in Tehran for the inauguration of the new president — has surprised many inside and outside the region for its relative caution, at least up to recently. The Iranian leadership is fearful of becoming embroiled in an all-out war with Israel despite all that has happened, not least because this would also risk a larger confrontation with the United States which, as the Iranians realise, would have only one victor.

In April, in retaliation for an Israeli attack on its consulate in Damascus, which killed 13 people, including Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps commander Maj Gen Mohammad Reza Zahedi and his deputy, Iran launched a barrage of 300 missiles and drones at Israel, the majority of which were easily intercepted with the assistance of the United States, the United Kingdom and France. In response to the killing of Nasrallah, Haniyeh and others, Iran launched a further attack last Tuesday of 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, the majority of which were again intercepted.

Throughout this conflict over the past 12 months, the Israeli government has largely ignored international opinion, including that of the US, as well as international law, without incurring any serious consequences

As in April, the attack largely failed, with the likelihood of a further Israeli attack on Iran in response. The form this might take raises fears once more of an escalation in the conflict on a scale not seen so far in a year of fighting. Some within Israel argue that the time is ripe for an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities or even toppling the regime. The US preaches caution of a kind, voicing support for a “severe” but “proportionate” retaliation, while stating that nuclear facilities should not be targeted.

However, throughout this conflict over the past 12 months, the Israeli government has largely ignored international opinion, including that of the US, as well as international law, without incurring any serious consequences. In January of this year, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) issued an order to Israel to refrain from any acts that might fall within the genocide convention and to take measures to improve the humanitarian situation of Palestinians in Gaza. On May 30th, the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court sought arrest warrants for Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu and minister for defence Yoav Gallant, as well as three Hamas leaders. In July, the ICJ ruled that Israel’s occupation of Gaza and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem is in breach of international law. To date, nothing of substance has issued from any of this.

[ Beirut hit by heavy bombing, at least 26 killed at Gaza mosque in latest Israeli strikes ]

Whether short-term success in the form of what has taken place in Gaza and Lebanon will result in greater security for Israel and peace and stability in the region remains an open question. The Israeli policy of assassinating its opponents has had mixed results in the past. Hassan Nasrallah is not the first secretary general of Hizbullah that the Israelis have killed. His predecessor, Abbas al-Musawi, was assassinated in 1992, leading the speculation then that the organisation would be fatally weakened. Instead under his deputy, Nasrallah, it developed into a significant political and paramilitary force in Lebanese politics and, arguably, the most effective opponent Israel has faced in the region. Without doubt, the organisation is severely weakened, but few observers doubt that it will rebuild sooner or later.

Furthermore, it is difficult to see how killing Nasrallah will improve the prospects of a ceasefire in Gaza or the return of Israeli hostages still held by Hamas. Ironically, the escalation of the conflict in Lebanon and increased hostility between Israel and Iran mean that the war in Gaza is assuming a lesser priority for Israel, with the result that a ceasefire remains as far away as ever. One year on, we are still a long way from the end of conflict in the Middle East.

Dr Vincent Durac lectures in Middle East politics in the UCD school of politics and international relations