It’s Christmas and so timely to consider that for which we should be thankful.
Somewhat improbably, Donald Tusk
The welcome for the new Polish prime minister from his colleagues in Brussels at last week’s summit was unmistakable. Tusk, who served in Brussels for five years as the president of the Council – ie co-ordinating and chairing the EU’s most powerful body, the group of heads of member states’ governments – defeated the populist, nationalist, right-wing Law and Justice Party in October’s elections and was sworn in as his country’s leader last week.
His election doesn’t just remove one of the EU’s awkward squad and replace them with someone committed to making the bloc work better, it sends a signal that the rise of the populist, Eurosceptic, anti-immigrant right across the EU – from the Netherlands to Hungary to Germany to France to Italy and all the rest – is neither inevitable nor irreversible. It’s hard for moderate centrists to win against the extreme-right populists. But, Tusk’s victory tells us, it’s not impossible.
[ Return of Poland’s Tusk changes balance of power in EUOpens in new window ]
Belfast Agreement
This year, Ireland marked 25 years since the agreement was signed on Good Friday 1998. If many of its architects, deliverers and operators in the fraught early years have since passed on, they were remembered gratefully by those still with us and by everyone else. Northern Ireland remains a place beset by many political problems (don’t start me) but it and the rest of the island are vastly better places now because of the agreement. It was truly transformational.
Dilemma about how Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are going to manage being partners and rivals remains unresolved
Three things the Irish election should be about - but won’t
Sinn Féin chief Mary Lou McDonald should have a word with Bertie Ahern
Two signposts to an early election: Sinn Féin’s troubles and a glimpse of Micheál Martin’s election posters
Incidentally, among the agreement-makers who re-emerged this year to take a bow was Bertie Ahern, whose painstaking diplomacy, hard work, vision and farsightedness did so much to deliver the peace accord. This aspect of Ahern’s legacy has been submerged since the financial crash for which many voters held him (disproportionately, perhaps) responsible; that has now been mended. Memories of the crash are too raw for a successful tilt at the presidency if that is what he fancies (I suspect he is still politically astute enough to realise this) but the agreement remains a towering achievement for which history will remember him.
[ Bertie Ahern blames the Troubles for Ireland’s economic woes in previous decadesOpens in new window ]
We live in a stable and wealthy democracy: recent jitters about the far-right in the wake of the Dublin riots should not obscure the fact that Ireland is a remarkably stable democracy and one of the wealthiest countries in the world. Yes, of course, the price of that is eternal vigilance, and our democracy and others face an unpredictable challenge from AI-generated deep fakes and other disinformation. But our democracy is strong, robust and inclusive; if Sinn Féin, part of a movement which once sought to overthrow the State, takes power at the next election it will do so pledged to uphold the democratic norms, institutions and oversight that have been observed here for a century and to which the great majority of Irish people, fond and all as they may be of giving out about politicians, are very attached. That is not something to take for granted.
Nor is our prosperity. The Times of London columnist Caitlin Moran (sounds like one of ours) recently wrote: “Let’s be honest about what wealth gives you: options; comfort; influence. I’ve been poor and I’ve been rich, and rich is definitely better. There are no drawbacks.” If this is true for columnists, it is also true for countries. It goes without saying that our society has plenty of problems that impinge on the lives of very many citizens – too many of whom live without adequate means, shelter and security. There is a palpable public impatience with the pace and effectiveness of government efforts to tackle problems. But it is also true that tackling them is a lot easier when a government has resources at its disposal than when it doesn’t. Sustaining a strong economy remains among the first duties of any government, and anyone else who aspires to govern.
Other things to be grateful for:
The wines of Burgundy (also other wines).
[ Putin says ‘no one can stop’ Russia as presidential election set for MarchOpens in new window ]
The GAA. January will give every county new hope (this could be our year).
We are nearly the best in the world at rugby and the Six Nations, the best competition in the world, starts in a few weeks.
There are lots of elections to look forward to next year. Locals, Europeans, the Limerick mayoral election (the first of its kind in the country) and possibly a general election here; there’s one in Russia in March (my guess is that Vladimir Putin could squeeze that one); one in the UK; and the biggie in the US in November. Great year in store for political anoraks, in fairness.
Reasons not to be cheerful
There are also, of course, some reasons not to be quite so full of bonhomie. I cannot remember a time when the future of the world seemed more threatening. From climate change to AI, there is a widespread sense of potential catastrophe. War rages in Ukraine, where the outlook has darkened considerably since 12 months ago and western backing for Ukraine is beginning to look flaky. In Gaza, Israel’s righteous fury after October 7th has curdled into a campaign of frequently indiscriminate destruction, and risks escalating into at best another lost decade of terror, retaliation and oppression, and at worst a wider regional conflict.
[ Democrats see the hand of Trump behind impeachment move against BidenOpens in new window ]
The autocrats are flourishing everywhere and, in the United States, Donald Trump bids for a return to the White House – an outcome that would be a disaster for the US and for the world. A Trump win would change the nature of the US at home and in the world and would have profoundly negative repercussions from which Ireland could not be immune. A Trump win, the foreign policy expert and former head of Oxford University Louise Richardson told me recently, would be “absolutely terrifying”. It’s hard to disagree. The world will be holding its breath.
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