Donald Trump’s ‘noisy majority’ keeps him top of the polls

Hours before his arrival, the barn-like building at the Prince William County Fairground was heaving with a few hundred people, listening to the songs of Elton John, Adele and the Rolling Stones.

On many heads in the crowd were red baseball caps emblazoned with "Make America Great Again", the slogan of a presidential campaign that has confounded members of Donald Trump's Republican Party, pollsters, political scientists and the media.

These fairgrounds in northern Virginia, about 50km west of the White House, are regularly home to car and dog shows, and demolition derbies. On Wednesday night, they witnessed a similar kind of showy and destructive display as the Trump monster truck drove in for his latest high-octane campaign rally.

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Donald Trump autographs the chest of a female supporter at Wednesday’s Virginia rally. Photograph: Gary Cameron/Reuters

The businessman's inflammatory remarks about Mexico sending rapists and drug dealers across the border into the US, about how he would send Syrian refugees and 11 million illegal immigrants back home and about "thousands and thousands" of American Muslims cheering the 9/11 attacks, have shocked America's mainstream.

They have done him little harm among a large group of Republicans who will start picking a presidential nominee in 57 days’ time.

Five months ago Trump was considered a silly-season summer story, a short-lived aberration of the political cycle, like other far-right candidates Herman Cain and Michelle Bachman in the 2012 presidential race. But he has dumbfounded his critics by remaining, except for only a few occasions, at the top of the polls since July.

Voters were reminded again yesterday of Trump's popularity as an anti-establishment candidate. A CNN/ORC poll put his support among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents at 36 per cent, with his closest rival, Texas senator Ted Cruz, trailing 20 points behind him on 16 per cent. Cruz was followed by retired surgeon Ben Carson with 14 per cent and Florida senator Marco Rubio with 12 per cent.

Blue collar

Larry Sabato, a politics professor at the University of Virginia, says Trump’s supporters are disproportionately blue collar and non-college educated and, with an estimated 10 per cent of the general electorate, he is by no means representative of US public opinion.

“Naturally, Trump’s style attracts certain types of voters who see no subtlety in the complicated issues the world faces and just want a strong man to ‘fix’ all the problems,” he said.

It is fitting that Trump’s divisive campaign chose a famous US civil war battlefield town for his rally. By contrast, Obama addressed a crowd of 100,000 people on this fairground in his final rally of his victorious 2008 campaign, speaking about uniting a divided and disparate country. Trump is capitalising on those differences.

“He is like Reagan – he is not a politician,” said Jeff, a supporter at the rally who wore a camouflage version of the Trump cap befitting the hunting-loving, gun-friendly state of Virginia. “He wants to work hard and he wants to get the job done. A lot of people can relate to that.”

“Everything he says resonates with Middle America, with normal people,” said Evan Rozecki, a contractor from the nearby town of Centreville who is wearing a joke “Hillary for Prison 2016” T-shirt.

“He doesn’t tell people what they want to hear. He tells people what is exactly on his mind. That is why everyone agrees with him, even when he says something stupid.”

Kathy Garrison, a business manager from neighbouring Fauquier County, like many of Trump’s supporters at the rally, agrees with his stance on illegal immigrants.

“I have watched them take advantage of the system,” she said, wearing an American stars and stripes scarf.

“America has taken a downhill spiral in the last seven or eight years so it is time to bring America back.”

Influx

Northern Virginia has experienced an influx of Hispanics and Asians in the past 25 years. They account for 32 per cent of the Prince William County’s population. The shift has turned Virginia purple, swinging Democratic in 2008 for the first time since 1964, and again in 2012. The diversity has brought controversy with the county passing one of the toughest laws in the country against illegal immigrants.

Outside the rally, Kim Propeack of a group called Casa in Action, led about 75 pro-immigrant protesters holding anti-Trump signs that read: “We are not criminals, we are hard workers”, among other things.

“He is the modern symbol for mobilising a racist, xenophobic, sexist vote as a bloc,” she said.

Inside, shortly before Trump arrived, Vivienne Perea argued with one of the rally's organisers after holding up a sign for Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders. She was later escorted out.

“People need to stand together for a better cause than just being hateful,” she said. “Trying to deport people who have been here for a long time, refugees – everything that he says is filled with hate.”

The crowd went wild when “The Donald” took the stage to his campaign theme song, We Ain’t Going To Take It Anymore. Phones were held aloft to capture his orange-pink face and blond mane of hair.

What followed, after a moment's silence to victims of this week's mass shooting in California, was an 80-minute broadside that was short on specifics, policy and, at times, facts, and very long on bluster.

Filled with invective and braggadocio, Trump’s speech felt like a new reality TV show, The Politician, despite his desire to present himself as a serious outsider who can shake things up on the inside.

“I am not an entertainer, believe me,” he said. “I am somebody who knows how to get things done. I’m a guy that’s won all my life.”

Winners and losers

Trump pitches himself in simple black and white terms, as a winner to the many losers, be they Obama, his Republican opponents in the 2016 race and anyone who disagrees with him.

“We’re gonna win – a lot. We’re going to win all the time,” he said. “It’s all about winning. It’s all about making America great again.”

His easily-transferable act involves bragging about his record in business (“I’m a great businessman”), his high profile (“they always put me on live television”) and his ability to draw thousands to his campaign rallies (“my crowds blow everybody away”).

The digs at his opponents are relentless. Former Florida governor and one-time Republican frontrunner Jeb Bush is "low energy" – "we could make a lot of money with him; we'll call him the Sleepmaster; he'll put everyone to sleep". Ohio governor John Kasich is "the worst debater I have ever seen – he can't speak properly".

Trump has tapped into an anger that his mostly white supporters feel towards a lack of economic progress and the perception that jobs and opportunities have been lost to immigrants and overseas competitors.

"I am bringing jobs back. I am bringing them back from China. I am bringing them back from Mexico. I am bringing them back from Vietnam. We are going to have jobs," he said to loud applause.

Trump has adopted the term "the silent majority", a phrase popularised by Richard Nixon, but on Wednesday he questioned whether his poll-topping campaign amounted to a popular movement.

“It has really become the noisy majority, and that’s okay, because that is what we have to be. We have to be heard because our country is going to hell,” he said.

The crowd, equally upset with America’s tarnished standing in the world, responded enthusiastically to Trump lambasting Obama for saying that the greatest threat came from “global warming”.

"China is over there right now laughing like hell at Barack Obama, " he said.

Build a wall

The loudest applause of the night came in response to Trump repeating his plan to build a wall along the border with Mexico.

“We are going to build a wall and stop people coming into our country illegally,” he said. Some chanted: “Build the wall!”

In a question-and-answer session, Trump was asked by a boy what his wall was going to be made of. “Hardened concrete, Rebar and steel,” he replied, after bringing the boy onstage. The crowd loved it.

"The last time I came to something like this was for Ronald Reagan a long time ago," said Bob from Manassas, sitting on a wall after the rally to rest his legs.

“To get me out here and to stand on hard concrete for three, four hours – the guy has charisma and that is something he has in common with Reagan.”

Another attendee, Sheri Moore, a Muslim American, was shocked at the way Trump has recently branded all Muslims as potential terrorists and was even less impressed by his performance in Manassas.

“He is more of an entertainer than a politician,” she said. “How can he even be taken seriously. He boasts and brags about himself. It was just too much.”