London letter: From now on in politics is all about the May election

Politics in Britain is now all about next May’s election and nothing else.

Politicians left the houses of parliament in Westminster last evening to the sound of Big Ben’s bells, and the sight of Christmas shoppers making their way home, but few will be able to enjoy a restful break.

Even before they left, William Hague sent an email out to Conservative supporters, urging them to donate anything from a fiver upwards, saying that he had other donors who were willing to match them pound for pound.

"One thing's clear: we need to make sure Britain avoids the chaos and uncertainty of a Labour-led coalition government – and we need your help to do so," Hague told them. He added that smaller parties were already "eyeing up cosy deals" with Labour.

Today is a significant day on the road to the May 7th election: it marks the opening of the so-called “long campaign”, where the Electoral Commission starts the clock on election spending.

Hague was not exaggerating about having donors in the background. Since 2010, the Tories have raised nearly £80 million (€100 million), much of it from companies operating in the city of London.

Increased spending limits

The plans for spending much of that £80 million have been a long time in the making. During the dog days of August, the Conservatives quietly slipped a statutory instrument onto the books that increased spending limits by 25 per cent.

Labour, which can’t match the Conservatives’ spending, missed it because most of their people had taken a well-earned rest. The blunder prevented them from bringing it to a Commons vote.

Between now and early April, the Conservatives will spend £23.5 million (€30 million), much of it concentrated on about 100 constituencies. During the “short campaign” – the 25 days before the general election – they will spend £9.2 million (€11.6 million).

In effect, this parliament is over in all but name. However, the Fixed-term Parliaments Act agreed between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats four years ago means it will limp on until May.

Today, only the brave or foolish would offer ironclad predictions about the result, and only the most partisan would argue that either Labour or the Tories have a chance of winning power on their own.

Despite months of negative publicity about Ed Miliband’s leadership, Labour has a better chance of forming a coalition.

The polls oscillate wildly. A poll of polls from just the last month suggests the Conservatives will get 32 per cent of the vote and Labour 34 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats down to 8 per cent.

Because existing boundaries favour Labour, the figures, if replicated in May, would give Labour a majority, with 337 seats. The Conservatives would have 267 seats. The Liberal Democrats would all but collapse, dropping from 57 seats to just 18.

However, few in Westminster expect that to be anything like the result. Most believe the Tories and Labour will come back with roughly an equal number of MPs, give or take a dozen.

Last week, Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg threw his Christmas party in Admiralty House. It was a good-humoured affair, despite the party's standing in the polls . Defying the pundits, the Liberal Democrats insist they will come back with 40 seats.

Another five years?

The question, however, is not how many of them return but which of them do so, since many of Clegg’s left-leaning backbenchers have little enthusiasm for another five years with the Conservatives.

The party with the most MPs will have the first chance of forming a coalition. The Conservatives under David Cameron could do it, if the Liberal Democrats manage to hit Clegg's target, though the odds are against that.

The Democratic Unionist Party could be useful, but only if the Tories are within nudging distance of a 323-seat majority – assuming that Sinn Féin holds its existing seats but continues not to take its places in the Commons.

However, Miliband should have the best chance of forming a rainbow coalition, if he can get ahead of Cameron. It will still require herculean efforts by him to form a government, particularly one that has any chance of lasting.

"Nigel Farage has said he'd prop up Ed Miliband as prime minister," says Hague. "The Scottish National Party have drawn up a shopping list of demands in return for a deal with Labour. The Greens have promised to 'push Labour to be truer to its original principle' if they join with Ed Miliband."

Between now and May, voters will hear every Conservative repeat Hague’s charge, which is valuable political propaganda by virtue of its being a not inaccurate description of the current reality.