Brexit analysis: Fear of personal cost central to campaign

Campaigners for Britain to remain in the EU hope that this week will see the referendum campaign enter a new phase as voters wake up to the risk involved in leaving.

Monday's Treasury assessment of the long-term economic cost of Brexit was 200 pages of scary statistics and grim warnings of a shrinking economy, plunging tax receipts and collapsing household incomes.

Most economists agree that Britain will be worse off outside the EU, although many expressed caution about predicting conditions 15 years from now. And George Osborne’s headline figure of £4,300 – the likely annual cost to the average British household – is a simple division of the projected loss to the economy rather than a prediction about household income.

Personal cost

It doesn’t matter. The £4,300 figure has the potential to lodge in voters’ minds and any argument about it will serve to reinforce the idea that leaving the EU will involve a personal cost of some dimension.

Remain campaigners hope it will serve as an antidote to the Leave campaign’s spurious claim that Britain sends £350 million to the EU every week.

Never mind that Britain’s budget rebate brings the figure down to £280 million and that another substantial chunk comes back in direct payments to farmers and other subsidies. If you’re explaining, you’re losing – and everyone else is losing interest.

David Cameron and Osborne know the economic risk is the most persuasive argument against Brexit for an electorate that will never love Brussels. Indeed, a ComRes poll for the Sun on Monday found that only half of those who say they will vote Remain actually admit to liking the EU.

Average of polls

That poll gives Remain a seven-point lead at 45 per cent to the Leave side’s 38 per cent, with 17 per cent undecided. An average of recent polls puts the two sides much closer together, however, with Remain on 51 per cent and Leave on 49 per cent. US president Barack Obama, who is more popular in Britain than he is at home, is expected to back Britain staying in the EU when he visits London later this week.

And the Remain side hopes that last week’s intervention by Jeremy Corbyn will help to mobilise Labour supporters, whose turnout will be crucial.

The designation of the Conservative-dominated Vote Leave as the official Leave campaign should boost the prospects of the pro-Brexit camp by ensuring that Ukip and Nigel Farage will not be the leading figures in their campaign.

London mayor Boris Johnson has begun to play a more energetic role in the Leave campaign, addressing public meetings around the country and making himself available for almost daily media appearances.

Undermine credibility

To win the referendum, the Leave campaign needs above all to undermine the credibility and authority of the Remain campaign’s most persuasive advocate – the prime minister.

Cameron has damaged himself with his poor handling of the controversy over his tax affairs and other recent setbacks. His enemies in the Conservative Party are poised to inflict more damage on their own leader in the coming weeks if the opportunity arises.