Analysis: Proposal meets most of Cameron’s demands but keeps EU integrity

Donald Tusk's proposals for a renegotiated relationship between Britain and the European Union meet most of David Cameron's reform demands without undermining the integrity of the EU or its fundamental principles.

The British prime minister now finds himself effectively aligned with both the European Council president and the European Commission, making a successful outcome to this month's summit in Brussels much more likely.

Without an agreement in Brussels this month, Cameron will be unable to hold the referendum on Britain's EU membership in June, forcing him to push the date back into the autumn or even into 2017.

On each of Cameron’s four “baskets” of issues – economic governance, competitiveness, sovereignty, and social benefits and free movement – Tusk’s proposals address Britain’s key concerns.

If it is adopted without much change at the summit, Cameron will be able to present it plausibly to British voters as a good enough deal to justify voting to remain part of the EU.

The most controversial British demand was for a four-year ban on workers from other EU countries claiming in-work welfare benefits in the UK.

Tusk proposes that any EU member-state which finds its welfare system overwhelmed by immigration from the EU could apply to the Commission and the Council to impose temporary limits on access to benefits.

“The implementing act would authorise the Member State to limit the access of Union workers newly entering its labour market to in-work benefits for a total period of up to four years from the commencement of employment. The limitation should be graduated, from an initial complete exclusion but gradually increasing access to such benefits to take account of the growing connection of the worker with the labour market of the host Member State,” Tusk’s document says, although it has left it to EU leaders to agree at this month’s summit on how long such restrictions will be allowed to last.

Member-states would also be allowed to pay child benefit to children overseas at a lower rate, if the standard of living there is lower. Tusk’s proposals amount to less than the blanket four-year ban Cameron demanded. Crucially, however, Tusk says that Britain has already shown that migration is at such a level to justify emergency measures, so the UK could introduce restrictions on benefits as soon as the referendum is over.

As expected, Tusk proposes that Britain should be allowed to opt out of the common EU commitment to “ever closer union” and he also calls for national parliaments to be given more power to block EU legislation. If a majority of national parliaments decide a piece of draft EU legislation breaches the principle of subsidiarity, they could have it scrapped.

On economic governance, Britain wanted safeguards to ensure that euro-zone countries could not gang up to approve new rules that disadvantage those outside the euro. Tusk says EU rules must not be allowed to discriminate against countries on the basis of which currency they use and exempts Britain from an obligation to participate in euro-zone bailouts. But he stops short of offering non-euro countries a veto or a delay on financial services legislation.

The details of Cameron’s renegotiation will be just one element of his campaign to persuade Britain to remain in the EU. But a plausible deal is important in limiting the number of his Conservative parliamentary colleagues who decide to campaign to leave. Tusk’s draft text offers the basis for such a deal, giving the prime minister an important boost ahead of this month’s summit.