Dangerous divergence between US and allies in tackling Islamists in Syria

In early March, the Syrian regime was on the offensive and had retaken territory lost to insurgents. Reasonable prospects existed for dialogue between Damascus and some opposition figures, if not the expatriate National Coalition as a whole.

Since then, the situation has changed considerably, thanks to an increased flow of weapons and funds and an influx of fighters to insurgent and jihadi groups, especially Islamic State (IS) and the al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra.

Al-Nusra has seized control of the northwestern province of Idlib, and IS has consolidated its hold on the north central province of Raqqa and the eastern province of Deir al-Zor. IS has also occupied the Greco-Roman ruins of Palmyra and the modern city of Tadmor.

Syrian regular forces face an alliance of rebel groups in the south as well as the Saudi-sponsored Islamic Front in Ghouta, east of Damascus.

In Iraq, while militiamen and troops have retaken the city of Tikrit from IS, army units have been driven from Anbar's capital, Ramadi, 90km from Baghdad, revealing once again that Iraqi troops remain unreliable in spite of reorganisation and US and Iranian retraining.

Following yesterday's meeting in Paris of the US-led anti-jihadi coalition, US deputy of state Antony Blinken tried to put a brave face on the Ramadi setback but said nothing about Syria. Instead, he claimed 10,000 IS fighters had been killed since the coalition air campaign began nine months ago. "It will have an impact," he said, claiming the coalition is following a three-year plan.

Foreign fighters

Iraq’s prime minister

Haider al-Abadi

disagreed, arguing the coalition was not seriously confronting IS and

Saudi Arabia

and that other coalition members had not stemmed the flow of foreign fighters, who now number at least 25,000 and come from 100 countries.

Yesterday, IS fighters battled Syrian regular troops and allied Kurdish militiamen near Hasakeh, a largely Kurdish city in the northeastern triangle near the Iraqi and Turkish borders, putting the army under severe pressure. At the same time, the Syrian army and the Lebanese Hizbullah movement reported they had seized ground from al-Nusra near the Lebanon-Syria frontier in the west.

Iraqi Shia militiamen have, reportedly, returned to Syria after redeploying to Iraq to fight IS there, making it clear that if it is to succeed the campaign against IS and al-Nusra has to be prosecuted simultaneously on both the Syrian and Iraqi fronts.

Saudi-Qatari lead

The Saudis and Qataris advocate separating the two fronts, focusing on IS in Iraq, while allowing IS and al-Nusra free rein in Syria. The failure of the US to mount air strikes against IS columns proceeding to Palmyra last week showed

Washington

is following the Saudi-Qatari lead rather than the other way around. Their primary aim is to bring down the Syrian regime by military means whatever the consequences.

The US seeks to contain and crush IS in Iraq and put pressure on Syria's president Bashar al-Assad to agree to a political solution acceptable to the Saudi-/Qatari-backed expatriate opposition based in Turkey.

The divergence between the US and its regional allies is dangerous. Sunni jihadis in Lebanon’s port city of Tripoli and Jordan’s provincial towns have already created security problems for the governments of these countries while IS has twice bombed Shia mosques in eastern Saudi Arabia to whip up sectarian tensions there.

The Obama administration warns agsinst bringing down the Syrian army, administration and state institutions along with the regime, as the Bush administration did in Iraq after the 2003 occupation. The vacuum created would, it says, pave the way for al-Nusra, IS and other jihadi factions to establish expansionist entities, destabilising the entire region.