Signs point to Turkey bunkering down in northern Syria

Signals from Ankara and events on the ground suggest Turkey's operation in northern Syria may be anything but a short-term incursion, a situation that may lead to significant complications for the United States and the broader fight against Islamic State.

In spite of the country's deputy prime minister downplaying Turkey's role and an apparent truce between Turkish and Kurdish forces, its economy minister has offered stern warnings that military forces will remain in Syria "until security is restored . . . and the threat against Turkey is eliminated".

While ambiguous statements are typical of Turkish officials loath to address the specifics of the invasion, named Operation Euphrates Shield, activity inside Syria now suggests the Turkish presence may be taking a more permanent shape.

On Saturday alone, the Turkish Red Crescent distributed 5,000 hot meals to locals in Jarablus as part of a major humanitarian operation overseen by Syrian rebels that included the pitching of tents for 1,000 people. The authorities have also gone as far as setting up a press centre for reporters covering the operation from Gaziantep in southern Turkey.

On August 24th, Syrian rebels including ethnic Turkmens backed by Turkish forces took control of Jarablus, a border town previously held by Islamic State militants for more than three years. It marked Turkey's first military ground intervention in the war. Since then, the rebels have pushed south towards Manbij, a strategic town on the route to Aleppo, Syria's largest city 90km south.

Brutal battle

Turkish military leaders say they hope to take control of Manbij – recently taken from Islamic State, also known as Isis, following a brutal 10- week battle with Kurdish forces – in the coming days. On Monday, Kurdish forces reportedly withdrew south of the Sajur river situated halfway between Jarablus and Manbij to reduce the potential for civilian casualties.

Turkey has accused Kurdish militias of forcing Arab and Turkmen civilians out of their homes and villages as part of a broader goal to establish an autonomous region abutting the Turkish border, and stretching from Afrin in the west to Iraqi Kurdistan hundreds of kilometres east.

Turkey's push south, however, has angered the US, an ally to both Ankara and Syrian Kurdish militias. The Pentagon has called clashes between the two "unacceptable and a source of deep concern", while a White House security adviser appeared to criticise Turkey, saying: "We do not support, and we would oppose, efforts to move south and engage in activities against the Syrian Democratic opposition which we have supported." Turkey says it has captured seven fighters belonging to the People's Protection Units or YPG.

Turkey's operation puts Washington in a troubling position. The US has about 200 advisers on the ground in Syria operating in "advise and assist" roles for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), an alliance of Kurdish, Arab and other opposition forces fighting Isis.

Though they are thought to be located 100km west of Manbij, the potential for American casualties in a theatre of war involving Turkey has now increased, and such an event would amount to a massive headache for both Washington and Ankara – while undermining the goal of degrading Isis.

According to Shervan Derwish, spokesman for the SDF in Manbij, SDF forces yesterday faced Turkey-backed Syrian rebels on the ground in battles just 15km from the town.

“The FSA [Free Syrian Army] is using Turkish tanks in the clashes but we will stay in Manbij,” he said. “Turkey has entered Syria in order to help Isis; we have destroyed between five and 10 Isis vehicles in recent days – Turkey has not targeted a single one. In fact, Isis is happy that Turkey has entered Syria.”

He claimed there are no longer any YPG forces west of the Euphrates river, although Turkey has made the opposite claim to justify the continuation of its operations. Officials at Turkey’s foreign ministry failed to respond to requests for comment.

At a minimum, the US fears uncoordinated military action will present new opportunities to Isis, which has already struck back against Turkey by launching three rockets that injured five people in the Turkish border town of Kilis on Monday.

The ongoing operation is unlikely to get any easier for Turkey. Its forces have already lost one soldier in clashes with Kurdish forces near Jarablus while, according to a monitoring group, at least 35 civilians were killed in Turkish air strikes on Sunday. Turkish opposition parties, too, have voiced deep concern. The intervention may also contribute to worsening humanitarian conditions for Syrians.