Joe Biden visits Poland on high-stakes mission

Four months ago Washington was locked in a war of words with Warsaw, warning of “serious ramifications” if a new law was enacted to ban foreign media ownership in Poland.

The law – which would have forced the US Discovery channel to sell its $1 billion TVN news operation in Poland – was vetoed at the last minute by President Andrzej Duda.

On Friday morning, with an actual war on Poland’s eastern border, Duda will welcome US president Joe Biden to the Polish capital on a high-stakes visit.

After meeting on Thursday in Brussels, Duda plans to press his US visitor in Warsaw about the “security, including Poland’s security, the humanitarian crisis” building on its borders.

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Since February 24th, about 2.2 million people have crossed from Ukraine into Poland, according to official figures released on Thursday, with 30,000 alone arriving on Wednesday, down from 31,000 a day earlier.

“This visit proves Poland’s importance in Nato and the region,” said Duda.

The Biden administration knows the symbolic value of standing with Poland as a valued strategic and humanitarian ally.

Though US officials have dismissed a trip into Ukraine as too risky, speculation is growing that the president, on his third foreign trip, will deliver a major address in Poland – possibly even in the border region.

Catastrophic betrayals

The US leader will need to work overtime to reassure jittery Poles of the value of Nato membership, in particular its mutual defence clause.

After a long and tragic history of catastrophic betrayals by its neighbours, Poles need to hear – again and again – that they will not be left to face Russia alone.

On Thursday, Nato announced plans to bolster its battle group presence along its eastern wall, from Hungary to Romania.

This follows additional deterrent troops recently deployed in Poland up to the Baltic countries. But Warsaw wants more: a “permanent, defensive presence” on its eastern flank and a “Nato peacekeeping force” in Ukraine.

Western Nato members view these ideas as unwise and potential provocations for Moscow.

But Poland’s ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, seeing their nightmare scenario unfolding in Ukraine, are on a mission to “wake up the West” on Vladimir Putin.

“A year or two from now . . . he will go for Helsinki, Vilnius, Warsaw, Bucharest, maybe Berlin, too,” said Mateusz Morawiecki, Polish prime minister, in Brussels on Thursday.

Biden’s visit comes amid growing tensions between Russia and Poland. On Thursday, the Russian ambassador in Warsaw complained that his embassy bank accounts had been blocked.

Morawiecki confirmed his government had acted against the embassy, which he accused of financing “terrorist activity”.

Killing the innocent

“Russia is terrorising Ukraine, terrorising the civilian population, killing innocent women, children and the elderly,” he said.

On Wednesday, Poland announced the expulsion of 45 Russian diplomats, their spouses and other embassy staff for carrying out “de facto intelligence work” from the diplomatic complex.

Interior minister Mariusz Kaminski also last week announced the arrest of a Polish civil servant, accused of being a Russian spy.

A political row is growing in Warsaw, too, over government plans to expropriate Russian-owned property in Poland.

On some issues, Warsaw is far closer to Washington than many of its western European neighbours, in particular demanding greater “economic combat” with Moscow by dropping Russian energy.

Last week, Poland announced it would be free of Russian gas by September, with a new Baltic pipeline carrying Norwegian gas via Denmark supplementing an existing liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal on the Baltic coast for deliveries from Qatar and the US.

Biden’s looming visit has triggered feverish speculation over whether the president will address in public long-running concerns, shared by Washington and western EU capitals, over the rule of law in Poland.

Since taking office in 2015, the PiS administration has enacted what it says are overdue reforms of courts and other public bodies, which critics say have undermined their political independence.

“The government is worried he will mention this, critics are worried he won’t,” said Eugeniusz Smolar, a Polish foreign policy analyst. “The signs at the moment are that Biden will take a first-things-first approach, that the priority now is Russia and not the rule of law.”