Despite optimism over plan, no winners in sorry Greek tale

As Greece enters a crucial 24 hours, and the possibility of a breakthrough seems imminent, the scale of the Greek catastrophe cannot be underestimated.

There are no winners in this sorry Greek tale.

Firstly, it must be remembered that just six months ago, there was talk of Greece exiting its four and a half year bailout and returning to private market funding.

Yes, the possibility of a third bailout was always in the background, but growth had returned, the government was returning a primary surplus, and Greece had even managed to raise some short-term cash in the private markets.

The most pessimistic scenario saw Greece returning to markets with the help of a precautionary credit line, or a short-term temporary third bailout before it followed Ireland and Portugal back to economic sovereignty.

Six months later, the IMF and European taxpayers are being asked to give Greece at least €53.5 billion in loans as part of a rescue programme lasting until 2018.

Thus while the latest proposals submitted by Greece suggest that Alexis Tsipras has capitulated to most of the demands proposed by creditors two weeks ago - including the most controversial requests on pensions and tax rates - this is not surprising.

The goal posts have changed since two weeks ago. Back then, the negotiations were about extending the exiting second bailout, probably until the autumn.

Now with the expiration of the second programme last week, the discussion has become about formulating an entire new multi-billion and multi-annual bailout programme.

It is not surprising that Greece has to concede to changes on reforms - the surprise will be if the lenders don’t demand further measures in light of the fact that the economic needs of the country have deepened so dramatically over the last two weeks.

Politically, the last six months have been disastrous for Mr Tsipras. Elected on a promise to end austerity, he is now actively seeking a new bailout programme with more punishing terms than the last, shackling his country to a further three years of economic dependency.

Syriza’s dire mishandling of events since assuming power in Athens have directly contributed to the worsening economic situation in Greece, forcing Greece to ask for another bailout.

That No voters in last weekend’s referendum are now being told they must sign up to much harsher austerity measures that the Greek government had proposed last week, makes a mockery of the ballot.

There is also the broader political question of how Mr Tsipras, an avowed Marxist, can stand over a bailout programme based on further fiscal consolidation.

The only beacon of hope for the Greek Prime Minister is that he secures a significant debt writedown, something that is far from certain given resistance in most member states.

So who are the winners and losers in this protracted battle? Both sides have lost considerably. European taxpayers are now being asked to provide billions of euros in extra loans for Greece, though the fact that there is no debt writedown on the table at this point means that their current commitments to Greece appear safe.

Syriza has lost political credibility as it has delivered a more punishing programme for its citizens than it inherited and has yet to secure any commitments on debt write-off.

The biggest losers remain the Greek people who have been consistently failed by their politicians, both from the right and the left, and the EU institutions over the last six years.

Even TD Paul Murphy’s affection for Syriza seems to be under threat. In a Facebook post the Anti Austerity Alliance TD said that the left within Syriza should not be blackmailed. “The Greek people did not vote on Sunday to say No to one austerity programme, only to have another (possibly worse) programme forced upon them.”

Whatever the outcome of the negotiations over the next few days, the only certainty that Greece is facing years of further economic retrenchment in the coming years as the economic implications of the last few months are felt.